US Supreme Court invalidation of tariffs keeps New Zealand Dollar vs Dollar stable

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New Zealand Dollar drops 0.66% today

Highlights

The US Supreme Court invalidated Trump-era tariffs, opening up to $1 billion in refunds for New Zealand exporters and boosting potential liquidity.
New Zealand’s beef and kiwifruit sectors are largely unaffected due to prior tariff exemptions, but other exporters could reclaim $300–$400 million.
NZD/USD faces short-term downside but holds medium- and long-term bullish bias, with a high probability of consolidation between $0.5830 and $0.5965 over the next week.

Potential liquidity boost for NZ exporters as tariff refunds open up

A recent US Supreme Court decision rendered the Trump-era Liberation Day tariffs unlawful, opening the process for New Zealand exporters to seek up to $1 billion in refunds from the United States. The opportunity to claim refunds is expected to increase liquidity for affected New Zealand businesses, with certain sectors such as beef and kiwifruit having previously secured tariff exemptions and thus facing limited direct impact. Depending on the outcome of these claims, as much as $300 to $400 million may return to New Zealand companies, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technical signals as short-term momentum weakens near resistance

The NZD/USD is positioned below the SMA-20 ($0.5881), while it remains above the SMA-50 ($0.5824) and SMA-200 ($0.5819). The Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily timeframe is at $1.1423, serving as clear immediate resistance far above current market levels. On the D1 chart, MACD and ADX provide 'Strong Buy' and 'Buy' signals, yet RSI (56) and CCI (-30) indicate only moderate, neutral-to-mild buying interest. Stoch RSI measures at 66 (neutral), and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is slightly positive. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and intraday signals suggest weaker momentum versus daily and weekly signals.

Upside prospects dominate as rangebound trade and caution persist

For the next five trading days, NZD/USD is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band between $0.5830 and $0.5965. The probability of a move higher is above 80%, while the likelihood of a decline is very low. The base case scenario calls for continued sideways action in this range as traders display cautious sentiment. A clear break above $0.5965 would point toward further upside, while sustained weakness below $0.5830 would indicate a switch to downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees NZD/USD stuck in a short-term downtrend while fundamentals remain in flux. He notes that the Supreme Court ruling boosts liquidity prospects for some New Zealand exporters, but broader price sentiment remains cautious. Technicals show mixed momentum, and consolidation below $0.5965 signals prevailing defensive sentiment. "Base case is sideways between $0.5830 and $0.5965 — I remain neutral unless we see a decisive breakout from this range."

Earlier, analysts noted that NZD/USD was exhibiting mixed but indecisive technical momentum against a backdrop of policy-driven volatility, with traders favoring a sideways bias in the absence of a major catalyst. The latest developments around US tariff refunds add a fresh catalyst and may introduce additional liquidity, but with prevailing market caution, traders should closely monitor $0.5965 as a breakout level indicating a potential shift in upside momentum.

Source of Data: NZD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.