The EUR/USD pair remains in a nervous consolidation mode within a relatively wide range of 1.1660–1.1800, where the market is simultaneously pricing in Fed expectations and a geopolitical risk premium. Currently, the pair is trading around 1.1727–1.1770, with the short-term range acting as a battleground between dollar demand and euro support driven by rate differentials.
Fed and Oil
The main short-term factor is inflation risk stemming from oil and tensions in the Middle East. This supports the dollar, pushes Treasury yields higher, and shifts expectations for Fed easing further out in time. The market is already discussing not only rate cuts but also a more hawkish scenario if inflation begins to accelerate again.
What supports the Euro
The euro still has fundamental backing from the relatively more hawkish stance of the ECB and the fact that European inflation does not yet allow for rapid policy easing. However, in the short term, this support is outweighed by dollar strength, which is more sensitive to oil, yields, and geopolitical developments.
Key near-term trigger
The key driver for the upcoming sessions is the U.S. labor market data: weak figures would bring back expectations of rate cuts and could push EUR/USD above 1.18, while a strong report would strengthen the dollar and bring 1.16 and lower back into focus. For now, the base case remains a wide, noisy range with high sensitivity to news rather than a clear trend.
In the near term, as already mentioned in the article EUR/USD under pressure as resistance 1.1790 holds back bulls, the pair may trade in a range.
Latest EUR/USD News
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