What triggered Euro vs Dollar price's latest move lower

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Eur/usd slips 0.75% today after data

Highlights

Euro area private sector saw its sharpest 18-month contraction in May, putting renewed pressure on the Euro.
The persistent economic weakness has led to sustained selling in the Euro, with no new forex-specific regulation or structural changes reported.
EUR/USD trades below major moving averages with pronounced seller control; forecast range sits between $1.14 support and $1.17 resistance, favoring continued downside.

Euro weakens after private sector data reveals extended contractions

Recent data from S&P Global showed that the euro area private sector experienced back-to-back contractions in May, marking its largest downturn in 18 months. Weak economic cues contributed to the move, with the Euro moving lower following this report. No regulatory or structural changes specific to the forex pair were noted, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, underscores persistent seller dominance in EUR/USD. He finds sustained weakness below major moving averages and negative macro news, signaling little fundamental support for a bullish reversal. Kharitonov notes that heavy downside persists, with muted momentum and euro area contraction reinforcing risk of further losses. He points out there is only marginal buyer presence, and critical supports remain vulnerable. "I see the macro backdrop and price action aligning for sellers, so further declines below $1.14 cannot be excluded," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the broader opportunity set in EUR/USD despite recent setbacks. He notes the current price action offers a compelling risk-reward window for buyers to stage a rebound, especially if the $1.14 support level holds. Karapetjanc remains constructive, pointing out that market sentiment could quickly shift, with technical recovery possible should economic signals stabilize. He believes further recovery is on the table if buyers break resistance. "I am confident that the market structure supports a rebound scenario as long as $1.14 holds," he says.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees EUR/USD in a heavy consolidation phase, with sellers setting the tone short term. He flags mixed signals from oscillators — downside pressure dominates, but the Stochastic RSI hints at a fast rebound trade. Turakhiya identifies the $1.14 to $1.17 range as offering tactical setups for nimble positioning. "Traders should watch for short-lived bounces above $1.1524, but the prevailing mood remains against sustained rallies," he says.

Strong downside momentum persists as technical barriers cap rebounds

EUR/USD trades well below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at $1.1635, $1.1696, and $1.1684 respectively, confirming strong seller pressure across short, medium, and long timeframes. The nearest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.1687, setting a ceiling above current levels, with no significant bullish crossover signals in play. Momentum signals are clearly negative: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests sellers are in control, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains weak and neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicate persistent downside and no overbought risk, but the Stochastic RSI flags a possible short-term rebound. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) stays slightly positive, suggesting a marginal presence of buyers, but intraday dynamics favor sellers. The pair opened nearly flat and is trading near the session low after slipping 0.75% to $1.1524. Intraday volatility stands at 1.05%. The tone is clearly heavy, with sellers dominating through the session and momentum signals generally aligned with the intraday decline, though oscillators are showing early signs of potential divergences.

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/USD was under broad downside pressure amid deteriorating eurozone fundamentals and bearish technical signals. The latest developments reaffirm this prevailing bearish scenario, with traders advised to monitor the $1.14 support as a critical level that could trigger further downside momentum if breached.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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