Flat trading for Silver as $90.00 resistance remains a hurdle

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Silver rises 0.63% today to $87.09

Highlights

India doubling its silver import duty to 18.4% has tightened local supply and pushed global silver prices higher.
The import duty hike is a response to crude market volatility and aims to protect India's current account, underlining cross-market linkages.
Silver trades in a strong bullish trend with projections for a $84.00–$90.00 range over the next five sessions, though overbought signals suggest risk of short-term pullbacks.

Import duty hike in India tightens supply as crude volatility drives policy

India's decision to double its import duty on silver to an effective rate of 18.4% is restricting local physical supply and directly impacting global trade flows, contributing to upward pressure on international silver prices. This policy response was triggered by heightened volatility in crude oil markets and aims to protect India's current account deficit, underscoring the strong link between energy markets and precious metals demand. The development highlights how regulatory actions in major consumer markets can amplify market tightening even amid broader geopolitical and inflationary backdrops.

Stacked supports and overbought signals point to trend strength yet risk

Technically, XAG remains above the MA-20 at $77.03, MA-50 at $74.83, and MA-200 at $72.46, while the Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart sits at $78.96—these levels act as stacked support beneath the current price. Momentum indicators continue to send strong signals: the MACD is firmly bullish, ADX confirms the presence of a robust trend, and the Awesome Oscillator supports ongoing positive momentum. Meanwhile, oscillators including RSI (71.49), Stoch RSI (100), and CCI (203.64) all indicate overbought conditions, with a notably high Bull/Bear Power (BBP) suggesting pronounced buyer dominance in the intraday session. Today's range extends from $85.84 to $87.37 with price action close to session highs, signaling continuation risk but also raising the likelihood of short-term pullbacks if exhaustion sets in.

Higher prices likely as momentum persists within defined volatility band

Over the short term, silver is expected to remain within a typical volatility band of $84.00 to $90.00. The probability of further price increases is high, backed by prevailing momentum and supportive technical levels, while the likelihood of a reversal below $84.00 appears low unless momentum breaks down. A breakout above $90.00 would open the path for additional gains, whereas falling below $84.00 would indicate the onset of a more meaningful corrective phase.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the doubling of India's silver import duty as a strong regulatory driver supporting the current bullish trend in silver. He believes this move restricts supply and underpins momentum, reinforcing the influence of global macro conditions and localized policy shifts. Silver’s technical position above all key moving averages adds further conviction that upside remains favored. "With Indian policy amplifying supply pressure and robust momentum in play, I expect silver to hold its gains and test higher within the $84.00 to $90.00 range."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver's uptrend was supported by strong bullish momentum and persistent safe-haven demand, though overbought signals and volatility pointed to possible short-term exhaustion. The latest developments around India's heightened import duties and reinforced technical momentum add a new fundamental catalyst, suggesting traders should closely monitor for an accelerated breakout if resistance near $90.00 is decisively overcome.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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