$0.7080 support anchors Australian Dollar vs US Dollar in flat session

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Australian Dollar drops 0.74% today

Highlights

The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged supports a less bearish near-term outlook for the US Dollar.
Maintaining US rate differentials is boosting immediate stability in USD flows, especially against the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD faces persistent short-term downside with a forecasted range of $0.7125–$0.7250, despite medium-term bullish technical signals.

Dollar stability maintained as Fed rate hold shifts sentiment flows

The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates on May 14, 2026, was reported by TD Securities strategists as having shifted the near-term outlook for the US Dollar to a less bearish stance. This policy continuity preserves interest rate differentials and supports stability in the US Dollar, affecting immediate currency flows between the Australian and US Dollar. These developments have accompanied ongoing market activity, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed oscillator signals as momentum diverges near key technical levels

Technical analysis shows AUD/USD is trading below the MA-20 ($0.7197) but remains above the MA-50 ($0.7080) and MA-200 ($0.6850). The Ichimoku Kijun level is at 1.0577, providing immediate resistance significantly above spot price. On the D1 timeframe, the MACD signals strong buy momentum, while the ADX reflects bullish bias overall but is offset by short-term sell signals on lower timeframes. The RSI reads near 56 and is in buy territory, whereas the Stoch RSI signals strong sell and the CCI is neutral, highlighting divergence among oscillators. BBP indicates a slight edge for buyers, but not decisively.

Upside probability rises as weekly indicators align on stabilization

Over the next five trading days, the expected price range is set at $0.7125–$0.7250, reflecting typical volatility around current levels. A probability of over 80% is assigned to a move higher, based on all four weekly indicators (RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50) signaling 'Buy'. The baseline scenario anticipates stabilization within this band with ongoing sideways movement; a push above $0.7250 would signal renewed upside, while a drop below $0.7125 could prompt further declines toward medium-term support at the MA-50.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees downside pressure persisting in AUD/USD after the Fed's decision to keep rates steady. Technicals paint a mixed outlook despite slight support from higher timeframe indicators. He remains cautious and focused on key levels for confirmation before committing to any direction. "Until $0.7250 is reclaimed, I stay neutral — weak momentum keeps risk to the downside."

Earlier, analysts noted that sentiment toward the Australian dollar was cautiously bullish but constrained by persistent economic and policy uncertainties. The current environment underscores continued consolidation, with traders advised to watch for a decisive break above $0.7250 as confirmation of renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.