Silver price forecast: $75.00 support in focus as XAG slides 7.63%

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Silver slides 7.63% to $77.13 today

Highlights

India increased import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%, significantly raising bullion costs and potentially reducing demand in a major market.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ongoing US-China trade uncertainties, and sustained high oil prices are compounding risks for precious metals demand and macro stability.
Silver trades with short-term bearish momentum amid high volatility, likely fluctuating between $73.00 and $81.00, with a moderate probability of recovery if resistance at $80.13 is cleared.

Import tax hikes and geopolitical risks drive demand and sentiment shift

On May 14, 2026, the Indian government raised import duties on silver and gold from 6% to 15%, materially increasing the cost of imported bullion and raising the risk of decreased demand in one of the world’s largest markets. This regulatory shift was accompanied by continued trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty tied to the war involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, which has closed key logistics routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and stalled ceasefire negotiations. Additional uncertainty arose from recent United States–China trade talks, while persistently high oil prices have prompted central banks to maintain elevated interest rates, further reducing the appeal of non-yielding metals like silver. Though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technical signals as overbought indicators meet near-term resistance

Technically, $77.13 is positioned just below the MA-20 ($77.76) while remaining comfortably above the MA-50 ($75.53) and MA-200 ($72.80). The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $80.13 and acts as immediate resistance for the current session. Daily charts display mixed momentum: MACD and ADX register continued upward impetus, yet RSI at 61.30 is bullish while Stoch RSI and CCI both point to overbought or strong sell conditions. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicator signals overbought with intraday seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) continues to support the earlier upward trend but does not confirm the current intraday pressure. Today’s trade featured a gap-down open at $81.39 from the prior close of $83.50 with pronounced volatility and selling pressure prevailing intraday.

Range-bound trading likely as upward bias faces weakening trend

Over the next five trading days, XAG is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band of roughly $73.00 to $81.00, reflecting recent intraday swings and consolidation around the $77.00 pivot. The probability of upward movement is moderate at approximately 75%, supported by bullish signals in weekly RSI, MACD, and longer-term moving averages, though the weekly ADX notes some trend weakening. The base scenario envisions range-bound trading as support and resistance converge; a sustained move above $80.13 would pave the way for a further bullish push, while a break below $75.00 would likely accelerate losses and test the lower end of the recent range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent Indian import duty hike as a headwind for global silver demand, particularly in a key consumption market. He believes current volatility is compounded by geopolitical turmoil and aggressive interest rate policy, pressuring sentiment but not breaking the long-term trend. From a macro and fundamental perspective, growing uncertainty presents risks, yet underlying technical signals remain constructive. Karapetjanc expects range-bound trading with a bullish tilt if resistance levels are surpassed. "If silver can reclaim the $80.13 level, renewed buying could drive another attempt at the upper end of the recent range."

In a recent review, analysts highlighted that despite persistent supply deficits and supportive trend signals, silver remained vulnerable to volatility and potential corrective moves amid tightening regulations. The latest developments reinforce this view, with heightened geopolitical risks and increased import duties amplifying market uncertainty, making the $75.00 support a critical level for traders to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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