Delayed Chinese approval for H200 chips sends Nvidia stock down 4.20%

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Nvidia slides 4.20% today to $225.04

Highlights

US regulators approved Nvidia H200 AI chip sales to major Chinese tech firms, re-opening critical revenue channels pending final Chinese clearance.
Nvidia CEO's recent visit to Beijing signals renewed efforts to secure China business, while Trump disclosed a $1M–$5M position in Nvidia shares.
Technicals remain bullish with NVDA trading above key levels and an 80%+ probability of maintaining a $215 to $235 price range next week.

China access and regulatory delays drive revenue timing uncertainty

The U.S. government approved sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to ten leading Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com, although actual shipments are pending final regulatory clearance from Chinese authorities. This decision provides Nvidia with access to a key overseas market, but the current lack of shipments introduces uncertainty around the timing of related revenue inflows. Separately, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang took part in a business delegation visit to Beijing to engage in negotiations aimed at reviving chip sales to China, while a recent filing disclosed that President Donald Trump acquired a substantial position in Nvidia shares, valued between $1 million and $5 million, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought signals persist as price holds above key supports

Technical levels indicate strong support and resistance ranges: the SMA-20 stands at $209.04, the SMA-50 at $192.21, and the SMA-200 at $185.73, all considerably below the current price. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily timeframe is at $208.56, providing immediate support. Momentum remains positive with a MACD buy signal and a high ADX reading, while RSI at 76.39 and CCI at 206.90 both indicate overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power remains positive intraday, though divergences appear on Stoch RSI and CCI at lower timeframes. Today's session opened with a gap down from $234.90 to $230.50, and the price is currently near the session low of $230.48, highlighting persistent volatility and pressure.

Range-bound trade likely as volatility bands set bullish bias

Over the coming week, a typical volatility band for NVDA spans $215 to $235. The probability of a price increase remains high, but the baseline expectation is for the stock to remain range-bound within a sideways channel near current levels. A break above $235 would set up a potential retest of recent highs, while a decline below $215 would expose short-term downside risk, though the underlying trend still favors buyers on dips.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent fundamental strength in Nvidia despite pronounced selling pressure and regulatory uncertainty around China shipments. He notes that technical momentum remains positive, yet the stock’s overbought levels and the unresolved timing of H200 deliveries add short-term risk. The base case remains for a sideways channel between $215 and $235, with buyers favored on dips but no immediate bullish expansion. "Until there is clarity on China shipments and price reclaims $235, I am staying defensive in my tactical outlook."

Previously it was reported that U.S. policymakers grappled with the strategic and market implications of approving Nvidia’s advanced AI chip sales to Chinese firms amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny. The current market response, coupled with regulatory uncertainty around shipment timing, introduces a new layer of volatility, making a sustained break above $235 an important bullish trigger to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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