Gold price prediction: $4,400 support in focus as XAU falls 1.37%

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Gold slides 1.37% amid peace talks

Highlights

Progress in US-Iran peace negotiations has eased geopolitical risks, reducing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Lower conflict-related demand is contributing to ongoing selling pressure in bullion markets, with investors shifting risk profiles.
Gold remains under short- and medium-term bearish momentum, with a realistic 5-day trading band of $4,400 to $4,600 and further declines favored barring a decisive break above resistance.

Peace talks shift sentiment as safe-haven demand for gold wanes

Recent statements from the US and Iran have indicated progress in peace negotiations, which could lower geopolitical tensions and directly impact gold’s safe-haven appeal. This shift in the conflict’s outlook typically reduces demand from investors seeking risk-off assets and may alter underlying flows in bullion markets. No other corporate or regulatory news has been reported for gold, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals dominate as weak momentum meets technical resistance

Technically, XAU is below the SMA-20 ($4,604.24), SMA-50 ($4,671.30), and SMA-200 ($4,611.10) levels, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,613.82 acting as nearest resistance. Daily momentum indicators are weak: MACD and ADX signal selling, while RSI (46.02), Stoch RSI, and CCI are all neutral-to-oversold, but not yet at an exhaustion point. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) confirms a bearish intraday bias, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. Price gapped down at the open and is trading near the session’s bottom, reflecting continued seller control as volatility remains moderate.

Further declines favored as rebound odds remain limited

Over the next five days, gold is likely to consolidate within a volatility band between $4,400 and $4,600. The current probability of a rebound above recent resistance is low (less than 20%), indicating that further declines are more likely in the immediate term. If XAU breaks above the $4,613 Ichimoku level, a bullish scenario could begin to develop. Conversely, a decisive move below $4,400 may trigger further downside, while a sideways pattern remains the base case.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees gold under persistent pressure as technical momentum and macro sentiment both weigh on the asset. He notes that diplomatic progress between the US and Iran could further erode safe-haven demand. Resistance remains strong near key moving averages and the Ichimoku level, limiting near-term rebound potential. "As long as gold trades below $4,613, the path of least resistance remains to the downside."

Previously it was reported that Malaysia’s sudden imposition of a 10% import duty on gold shipments had created new friction points in the regional physical bullion market. Against the backdrop of easing geopolitical tension and persistent downside momentum, the current environment suggests traders should monitor the $4,400 level as a critical support in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.