Steady price for US Dollar vs Korean Won as ₩1,485 support holds

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US dollar vs Korean won drops 0.51%

Highlights

Net foreign investors sold approximately 1.38 trillion won in KOSPI equities, prompting sizable outflows from Korean financial markets.
The resulting capital exodus increased won liquidity, amplifying downward pressure on the KRW versus USD as the week began.
USD/KRW is forecast to consolidate between ₩1,485 and ₩1,505, with a high probability of upward movement amid increased short-term volatility and mixed technical signals.

Won weakens as equity outflows fuel liquidity-driven pressure

Net foreign selling on the KOSPI reached about 1.38 trillion won, indicating significant outflows from domestic equities, which has led to increased supply of the Korean won in the currency market. This investor activity can place downward pressure on the won against the US dollar by amplifying liquidity-driven moves. The start of the new trading week also reflected these dynamics, as the won opened weaker relative to the US dollar amid shifting capital flows.

Support defined near Kijun amid mixed short-term momentum

Key technical reference points include the MA-20 at ₩1,490.34, MA-50 at ₩1,486.28, and MA-200 at ₩1,470.16. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₩1,481.29, acting as immediate support for the pair. Daily momentum indicators present a mixed scenario: MACD (D1) is in buy territory, ADX is neutral, RSI (D1) is at 53.43 suggesting a mild bullish bias, while Stoch RSI signals oversold and CCI remains near neutral. BBP flagged previous overbought readings, but has since reversed sharply into oversold territory on shorter timeframes. The Awesome Oscillator is presently neutral, reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum. After an initial gap up at the open, the price has retreated lower through the day, closing in the lower end of the session's range with moderate volatility.

High odds of sideways trade as technicals point to consolidation

Over the next five trading days, USD/KRW is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between ₩1,485 and ₩1,505. The probability of an upward move remains high (over 80%), supported by persistent buy signals from weekly indicators. The baseline view anticipates sideways consolidation between support near ₩1,485 and resistance at ₩1,505. Should the price breach ₩1,505, a move toward recent highs is possible, while a drop below ₩1,485 could result in a decline toward the MA-50 and Kijun levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/KRW under pressure with risk factors shifting against the won. He highlights that significant foreign outflows from KOSPI signal weak sentiment and add to short-term volatility. Technicals show support around ₩1,485, but momentum is mixed and lows may be retested. "Until the market clears above ₩1,505 or shows better buying, I remain cautious on the won this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW maintained a generally bullish technical bias despite the presence of short-term selling pressure. The renewed downward momentum linked to sizable foreign equity outflows adds a significant risk factor, making the ₩1,485 support level especially critical to monitor for potential volatility in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.