Coinbase stock price forecast: $195.81 resistance as COIN advances 4.51%

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Coinbase rises 4.51% to $190.61 today

Highlights

Coinbase secured key CFTC no-action relief to offer Deribit futures and accept crypto margin from US customers, broadening derivatives access.
Coinbase plans to launch perpetual-style equity index futures and has seen significant institutional shareholding changes, including a 52.8% COIN equity reduction by Flputnam.
Technical signals remain bearish as COIN trades below major moving averages, with an expected price range of $180–$200 and downside risk prevailing despite oversold short-term conditions.

Regulatory win and institutional moves drive derivatives market expansion

Coinbase Financial Markets secured a pivotal regulatory milestone on May 29, 2026, as the CFTC granted no-action relief allowing the firm to offer Deribit futures to US customers and to accept crypto assets and stablecoins as margin for foreign futures and options trades. This regulatory decision broadens trading flexibility and enhances Coinbase's appeal for both institutional and individual market participants, directly supporting expanded access to derivatives markets. Additional drivers include the planned launch of perpetual-style equity index futures—targeting in-demand sectors—and recent changes in institutional shareholding, such as Flputnam's 52.8% reduction in COIN equity during the fourth quarter.

Bearish bias and weak momentum as COIN lingers near resistance

Technically, COIN is trading above the MA-50 at $189.62 while still below both the MA-20 at $194.72 and the MA-200 at $249.10. The Ichimoku Kijun line sits at $195.81, representing nearby resistance. MACD and ADX on the daily chart indicate weak or declining momentum, with MACD showing a continued bearish bias and ADX suggesting that trend strength is currently low. Among oscillators, the RSI stands at 44.79 and the CCI is at -145.03, supporting a mild-to-strong oversold reading; Stoch RSI at 23.58 indicates potential for a near-term reversal. BBP readings confirm the dominance of sellers intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator remains negative, reinforcing the prevailing downside trend.

Bearish trend persists as recovery attempts face resistance

In the near term, COIN is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $180 to $200 over the next five sessions. There is a low probability—under 20%—of a sustained price increase, making a pullback more likely in the short run. Primary scenario envisions consolidation between support and resistance zones; a break above $195.81 could unlock a move toward $200, while a drop below $180 may trigger additional downside. Overall, bearish momentum persists but recent price action hints at short-term attempts to recover from oversold conditions.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Coinbase’s new CFTC relief as a key macro and fundamental catalyst. He believes the regulatory green light for Deribit futures and flexible margin types boosts institutional and retail confidence. While recent price action remains technically heavy, fundamental momentum is improving. "Regulatory breakthroughs and product expansion at Coinbase signal a constructive setup for the medium term, even as short-term volatility persists."

Previously it was reported that Coinbase expanded its derivatives offerings through a CFTC-registered entity, signaling a focus on regulatory compliance and growth in the futures market. Building on this, the latest regulatory approval and product pipeline developments further diversify Coinbase's capabilities, with traders now advised to monitor for a break above $195.81 as a potential trigger for fresh bullish momentum.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.