After the spring correction, the natural gas market has shifted back into a recovery phase. European TTF has climbed back into the €47–48/MWh range, while U.S. Henry Hub has stabilized above $3/MMBtu amid rising expectations of summer demand and increased LNG export activity.
The market is gradually pricing out earlier fears that the recent price decline was excessive, given the ongoing shortage of flexible supply and Europe’s continued reliance on LNG imports.
LNG and geopolitics support the market again
The main driver of the recovery remains disruptions in global LNG supplies and persistent risks in the Middle East. The extension of force majeure restrictions on part of Qatar’s supply, along with continued uncertainty surrounding the safety of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, has brought a significant geopolitical premium back into the market. Against this backdrop, European traders are competing more aggressively for available LNG cargoes, supporting prices despite seasonally weaker early-summer demand.
Europe accelerates injections, but the balance remains fragile
Despite a gradual recovery in storage injection rates, analysts continue to view the European balance as tight. Following a more demanding winter season, storage levels remain below comfortable thresholds, and achieving target levels by autumn will require record LNG inflows. Rabobank and ABN AMRO warn that the market is still underestimating the risk of shortages in the event of a hot summer, new supply disruptions, or stronger Asian demand. For this reason, many market participants see the current price recovery not as a short-term spike, but as a return to a more realistic pricing of risks.
Strategic outlook: correction gives way to a sustainable recovery phase
Recent assessments by the IEA, Kpler, and major trading houses indicate that the market is gradually shifting from oversupply concerns to a moderately bullish balance scenario. Additional LNG capacity in the U.S. will eventually help ease the deficit, but the main impact is expected only in 2027–2028. Until then, any deterioration in weather conditions, rising Asian demand, or new geopolitical disruptions could quickly push prices back above €60/MWh. As a result, the current recovery is increasingly seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle rather than a temporary rebound after the spring decline.
Near-term outlook
After breaking resistance around $3.02, NATGAS prices have moved up to a strong resistance level at $3.24, which is currently limiting bullish momentum. This could trigger profit-taking on long positions and a pullback toward the $3.05–3.02 range, as noted in Natural gas rises on LNG shortage and weather factors. A breakout above this resistance would open the way for a move toward $3.30. At the same time, there are currently no signs of a trend reversal.
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