Flat trading for US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel as price approaches ₪3.0987 resistance

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US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel up 0.63% today

Highlights

The Bank of Israel's unannounced $801 million forex intervention sharply lifted immediate USD/ILS demand and disrupted the shekel's appreciation trend.
Israeli exporters now call for broader policy actions to bolster employment and maintain competitiveness in technology sectors amid FX uncertainty.
Technical indicators point to strong near-term USD/ILS bullish momentum, with a very high probability of sideway or upward movement in the ₪2.9458–₪2.9990 range.

Shekel stabilization as central bank intervention meets exporter calls

The Bank of Israel's $801 million foreign exchange purchase, disclosed only weeks after its execution, stands out as the main driver shaping current price action. This action represents a direct intervention to boost US dollar liquidity, increasing near-term demand for USD/ILS and temporarily curbing the shekel's appreciation trajectory. Amid this, Israeli exporters are urging further measures to protect employment and high-tech competitiveness, while the central bank's delayed communication has fueled speculation and debate over market transparency.

Bullish momentum strengthens above support amid mixed oscillators

Technical levels show USD/ILS trading above both the MA-20 (₪2.9574) and MA-50 (₪2.9456), while still capped by the MA-200 (₪3.0987). The Ichimoku Kijun line at ₪2.9497 serves as immediate support. Momentum indicators offer bullish signals: RSI stands at 58.89, with MACD, ADX, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all signaling buying pressure. However, neutral readings from Stoch RSI and the Awesome Oscillator introduce minor caution in the otherwise constructive setup. The current non-zero price gap of 0.0091 and a position near today's high, combined with muted intraday volatility, reinforce ongoing upward momentum.

Sideways trading expected as breakout risks remain elevated

Over the next 2–3 trading days, USD/ILS is likely to maintain a sideways trajectory within the corridor of ₪2.9458–₪2.9990, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. Upward continuation is highly probable, with bullish momentum likely if the price breaks and sustains above resistance. By contrast, a decisive move below immediate support could trigger a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, believes the Bank of Israel's intervention is the clear catalyst supporting the USD/ILS rebound. He notes that technical momentum remains positive, but warns that delayed communication from the central bank is adding to uncertainty and speculation. Kharitonov sees upside capped unless support at ₪2.9497 fails, which would expose the pair to renewed downside. "Base case remains sideways to mildly bullish — but until transparency returns, any strength should be viewed with caution."

Earlier, analysts noted that while USD/ILS showed short- and medium-term strength, longer-term momentum signals remained broadly mixed, warranting caution. The Bank of Israel's sizable intervention and current positive technical setup add fresh upside risk, making the sustainability of gains above the immediate support zone a crucial focus for traders in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.