Euro vs Indonesian Rupiah trades flat as Bank Indonesia increases yields on Rupiah Securities

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Euro vs rupiah rises 0.84% today

Highlights

Bank Indonesia raised benchmark rates and increased local securities yields to support the rupiah amid significant FX pressure.
The central bank's actions follow a 9% decline in the rupiah year-to-date, prompting additional liquidity measures to stabilize financial markets.
EUR/IDR shows strong buyer momentum with bullish technical signals, projected to trade between Rp20,706.51 and Rp20,981.23 over the next 2–3 days.

Central bank policy shift as urgent response to rupiah decline

Bank Indonesia has raised its benchmark interest rate, a decisive move aimed at curbing pronounced pressure on the rupiah by increasing the carry appeal for investors and protecting the currency from further depreciation. Alongside this, the central bank has boosted yields on Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities, enhancing local asset attractiveness and drawing fresh demand for the currency. The reactivation of the repo auction facility injects crucial liquidity into the system, helping maintain stability in financial markets. The rupiah's approximate 9 percent decline since the start of the year, reported by The Banker and Ikatan Konsultan Pajak Indonesia, highlights the urgency behind these recent policy measures.

Intraday buyer dominance as technical momentum nears overbought zone

Technically, EUR/IDR trades well above the MA-20 (Rp20,738.29) and MA-50 (Rp20,707.09) on the hourly chart, with a significant premium over the long-term MA-200 (Rp19,855.94). The Ichimoku Kijun at Rp20,703.58 acts as immediate support, and price action remains near session highs. Among oscillators, MACD signals Strong Buy and Awesome Oscillator confirms upward bias, while ADX is Neutral. RSI and Stoch RSI indicate ongoing buying interest, though the Commodity Channel Index is Neutral and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) registers as Overbought, pointing to current intraday dominance by buyers but raising potential for short-term pullbacks if momentum wanes.

Consolidation likely with odds favoring upward breakout

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, EUR/IDR is forecast to trade between Rp20,706.51 and Rp20,981.23, a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario calls for sideways consolidation within this range, with a 65% probability of an upward move and 35% probability for a decline. Bullish continuation may follow if the price breaks above the upper bound, while a drop below immediate support would open the door for a bearish reversal.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Bank Indonesia’s recent policy actions as a clear signal of commitment to protecting the IDR from ongoing depreciation pressures. He believes the combination of rate hikes, higher yields on local securities, and renewed liquidity support should help stabilize sentiment in the near term. With EUR/IDR trading above key averages and technicals favoring buyers, the analyst anticipates further upside as long as recent measures gain traction. "Bank Indonesia’s firm stance and strong macro backing put the odds in favor of IDR stabilization, and I expect improved sentiment to support the currency going forward."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/IDR was exhibiting limited upside potential amid bearish technical signals and heightened intervention by Bank Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah. The latest rebound above key moving averages and the emergence of fresh buying momentum suggest that a decisive close beyond the current consolidation band could catalyze the next significant trend, making sustained price action above Rp20,981.23 a critical level to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.