ORCL shares face further downside amid persistent selling pressure on the RSI: weekly forecast

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Oracle drops 14.50% over the week

Highlights

Oracle shares fell sharply by 14.5% this week, closing at the low end of their recent range.
Technical momentum remains bearish, with neutral to mildly oversold oscillators indicating possible selling exhaustion but no clear recovery signal.
Expected trading range is $175.50 to $187.00 next week, with further downside likely if price breaks below $175.50.

Investor anxiety deepens despite record revenue and cloud growth this week

Oracle reported record fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $19.2 billion with cloud infrastructure revenue growing 93% year-over-year. Despite these strong results, the company plans to increase FY2027 capital expenditures to approximately $90 billion and will raise $40 billion through debt and equity financing, sparking investor concerns over free cash flow and dilution. Oracle also secured a $395.8 million contract from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management to modernize federal HR systems using its cloud platform, while shareholder litigation and regulatory scrutiny increased in response to its capital allocation and AI infrastructure strategy.

Medium-term resistance persists as weekly indicators flash broad weakness

On the weekly chart, Oracle trades at the lower end of its seven-day range and sits above the MA-20 and MA-200, but remains under the MA-50, emphasizing medium-term resistance. Weekly momentum indicators show mixed signals: while MACD and ADX are neutral, the RSI highlights persistent selling pressure, and the Stochastic RSI and CCI indicate neutral to mildly oversold conditions with signs of exhaustion in the recent selloff. Volatility over the week is elevated at 25.80%, and support and resistance are identified at $175.50 and $187.00 respectively.

Sideways consolidation likely next week amid high volatility risk

In the next five trading days, Oracle is expected to consolidate within the $175.50 to $187.00 range, tracking this week's steep volatility and technical levels. Given that only one out of four key momentum indicators signals a potential buy, the probability of a further decline remains higher than a rebound. Baseline scenario anticipates sideways movement within this range, with a bullish case testing above $187.00 if buyers regain traction, but a break below $175.50 would open the door to further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees this week’s sharp drop in Oracle as a reset rather than a reversal. He notes that robust cloud growth and record revenues confirm the company’s leadership in digital infrastructure, despite investor nervousness over ambitious capital spending plans. Karapetjanc believes persistent volatility is attracting more speculative interest, while medium-term support above the MA-200 reflects strong institutional confidence. In his view, Oracle’s bullish structure remains intact as long as $175.50 holds and new contract wins continue to underscore its long-term potential. "With Oracle consolidating near support after heavy selling, I see opportunity for patient bulls to re-enter ahead of any renewed momentum above $187.00."

Previously it was reported that Oracle faced persistent downside momentum as investor concerns mounted over rising capital expenditures and increased debt commitments. With ongoing shareholder scrutiny and heightened volatility, traders should closely monitor for a confirmed shift in momentum, as a decisive move above or below the $175.50 to $187.00 range will likely determine Oracle's near-term direction.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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