SpaceX nears Amazon market value as IPO rally builds

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SpaceX is approaching Amazon's market cap

Highlights

SpaceX rose more than 10% premarket, near a $2.8 trillion valuation.
The stock is up more than 57% from its $135 IPO price.
Amazon’s market value stands near $2.66 trillion.
Analysts warn the rally may be driven more by speculation than earnings.

Post-IPO surge accelerates

SpaceX shares were up about 10.4% at $212.50 in early trading, more than 57% above the company’s $135 IPO price. If those gains hold, SpaceX would be valued at nearly $2.8 trillion, ahead of Amazon’s roughly $2.66 trillion market capitalization and close to becoming the world’s fifth-largest company, Reuters reports.

The rally follows a blockbuster IPO that raised $75 billion last week, already the largest listing on record. SpaceX said Monday that underwriters exercised their greenshoe option to buy additional shares, lifting total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion.

Trading interest was unusually high, with more than $1.76 billion worth of SpaceX shares changing hands by Tuesday morning, exceeding the combined trading volume of several of the market’s largest technology stocks.

Valuation doubts build

The stock’s climb has also drawn skepticism. SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in sales last year and a net loss of $4.94 billion after merging with xAI, making its nearly $2.8 trillion valuation difficult to justify by conventional earnings measures.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, said the valuation “makes absolutely no sense today,” arguing that investors appear to be buying on expectations that others will keep pushing the price higher.

Volatility could increase as options trading in SpaceX begins. Analysts expect contracts to be expensive and active, especially because the stock has a limited public float and has already become a momentum trade. Fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, as well as pending additions to FTSE Russell and MSCI indexes later this month, could bring fresh demand from passive funds and ETFs.

A new test for mega-cap markets

SpaceX’s rise matters because it shows how quickly investor demand can remake the top ranks of global equities. A company with less than $20 billion in annual sales is nearing Amazon’s market value, despite posting a multibillion-dollar loss.

The rally also adds pressure to index providers, fund managers, and retail investors. If SpaceX enters major benchmarks, passive funds may have to buy the stock regardless of valuation. That could support the price in the short term, but it also raises the risk of sharper swings if sentiment turns. For now, SpaceX has become both a symbol of enthusiasm for Musk’s space and AI ambitions and a test case for how far markets are willing to price future growth.

In addition, we wrote that a U.S. judge dismissed Musk's xAI suit against OpenAI.

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