Latest market estimates point to another substantial build in inventories, increasing concerns about a short-term supply surplus. Additional pressure comes from forecasts of higher production and inventory levels remaining above long-term averages.
Fundamental backdrop: LNG provides support but has yet to reverse the trend
Demand from LNG exports remains one of the key bullish factors for the market. U.S. export facilities continue to operate at high utilization rates, while the global gas market remains sensitive to supply disruptions and the aftermath of recent events in the Middle East. However, for now, this factor is only limiting the downside, as the market remains focused on the current supply surplus and elevated inventory levels.
Technical picture: consolidation with a bearish bias
After advancing toward the 320–325 area, prices failed to establish themselves above that zone and entered a corrective phase. Quotes are currently trading around 298, positioned between short-term moving averages, while the 305–312 area acts as the nearest resistance zone. As long as prices remain below this range, sellers retain the advantage. Support is located in the 292–290 area, and a break below could open the way toward the 280–285 range. The long-term 200-period moving average remains below the market, suggesting that the medium-term uptrend is still intact, although short-term momentum has weakened considerably.
What matters next
In the coming days, the market will closely monitor U.S. natural gas storage data, summer heat forecasts, and LNG export flows. Hotter weather could attract buyers back into the market by boosting electricity demand for air conditioning. However, inventory and supply data currently remain a stronger influence than weather-related demand expectations, preserving the risk of further correction. The base-case scenario at this stage remains consolidation with a moderately bearish bias below 305–312 and repeated attempts to test support near 290, as previously highlighted in Natural gas remains capped below 3.10 as downside risks persist.
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