EUR/USD remains under pressure amid stronger demand for the U.S. dollar. The greenback continues to be supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a relatively restrictive monetary policy stance, as well as by safe-haven flows driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields have provided additional support for the dollar, while markets have gradually scaled back expectations for an aggressive pace of Fed rate cuts.
The outlook for the euro remains less favorable. Although the European Central Bank recently raised interest rates, policymakers maintained a cautious tone and refrained from signaling a clear path toward further tightening, limiting the upside potential for the single currency.
Technical outlook: support breakdown increases bearish pressure
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has confirmed a bearish scenario after breaking below the 1.1470–1.1480 support zone. This area had previously served as the lower boundary of a broad trading range and has now turned into the nearest resistance level.
The current rebound from recent lows appears to be a technical pullback rather than a trend reversal. The pair remains below its major moving averages, while the market structure continues to show a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. As long as EUR/USD trades below 1.1470–1.1480, sellers are likely to retain control.
Key levels and near-term scenario
In the short term, market attention is focused on how price reacts around the 1.1470–1.1480 area. If buyers fail to reclaim this zone, which previously acted as support, downside pressure could persist, opening the door for a move toward 1.1420 and potentially 1.1400. These levels also coincide with an important support area closely watched by market participants.
For the technical outlook to improve, EUR/USD would need to establish a sustained move back above 1.1470–1.1480 and then regain the 1.1550 level. Until then, any upward moves are likely to be viewed as corrective within the broader bearish trend, as previously noted in EUR/USD falls again as Fed leaves interest rates unchanged.
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