Johannesburg mayoral race tests ANC as Helen Zille campaigns on city decline

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Johannesburg mayoral race test

Highlights

Helen Zille leads the Johannesburg mayoral race with 39 percent support versus the ANC's 30 percent, per March Social Research Foundation poll.
Johannesburg faces an infrastructure backlog estimated at R200bn and fiscal threats, including R10.3bn in illegal wage settlements and a potential Eskom power cutoff over R5.2bn in unpaid debts.
Governance instability persists, with Johannesburg seeing 10 mayors in 10 years as both ANC and DA-led coalitions face corruption scandals and coalition-driven limitations.

Campaign message and election dynamics

As reported by Financial Times, Zille is using a high-profile campaign centred on Johannesburg's deteriorating services, staging appearances at broken substations, flooded streets, sinkholes and neglected public spaces to highlight what she says is municipal failure.

The veteran Democratic Alliance politician says the city needs infrastructure repairs, more stable finances, better revenue collection and a rebuilt civil service. She is seeking to become the first white mayor of the majority-Black city since the end of apartheid, a result that would carry symbolic and political weight well beyond municipal government.

A Social Research Foundation poll in March puts Zille on 39 per cent, ahead of the ANC on 30 per cent, although coalition arithmetic may still shape the final outcome because the ANC has not yet announced its candidate. Analyst Menzi Ndhlovu says a Zille victory would raise deeper questions about the ANC's future, given its historic role and its current coalition government with the DA and other parties.

Another major contender is Herman Mashaba, the businessman and former Johannesburg mayor who later founded ActionSA after splitting from the DA. His campaign is focusing more heavily on anti-immigrant rhetoric, while Zille is framing the race around the collapse of services and urban management.

Fiscal stress and governance risks for Johannesburg

Johannesburg's problems stretch from power cuts and water shortages to uncollected rubbish, broken street lights, damaged roads and rising crime, with an infrastructure backlog estimated at R200bn. The strain is increasing pressure on any future administration to stabilise operations while avoiding deeper fiscal deterioration.

In April, South Africa's finance minister warned the city over violations of finance laws and threatened to withhold funding, citing an illegal R10.3bn wage settlement bill. Last month, state utility Eskom also threatened to cut electricity supplies to parts of Johannesburg over R5.2bn in unpaid debts.

Mayor Dada Morero rejects claims that the city is nearing bankruptcy, but repeated turnover at city hall has reinforced perceptions of weak governance. Since the ANC lost its outright majority in 2016, coalitions led by both the ANC and the DA have been associated with corruption scandals and 10 mayors in 10 years.

Even if Zille or another opposition candidate wins, the next mayor is likely to govern through a difficult coalition, limiting room for unilateral action. Critics argue that Johannesburg's structural problems differ sharply from those faced in Cape Town, raising doubts over whether a more confrontational leadership style can deliver a turnaround in the country's richest city.

Our earlier report on Labour’s leadership crisis around Keir Starmer outlined how mounting internal dissent and calls from more than 100 MPs were fuelling uncertainty over his position and pushing demands for a clear exit timetable. We also noted that Andy Burnham’s parliamentary win strengthened the prospects of a formal leadership challenge, increasing the risk of a destabilising contest inside the governing party.

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