EUR/USD remains under pressure and is currently trading near the 1.14 area, marking its lowest levels since March. The primary driver behind the move is renewed strength in the U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.
Markets continue to price in a high probability of another rate hike before year-end, while elevated U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive to investors. Additional support for the greenback comes from ongoing safe-haven demand and cautious sentiment across global financial markets.
Eurozone weakness limits the euro’s upside potential
The fundamental backdrop for the euro remains mixed. Although the European Central Bank raised interest rates in June, recent economic data continue to point to slowing activity across the euro area. The composite PMI remains below the 50-point threshold, signaling a contraction in business activity, while ECB growth projections have been revised lower amid persistent geopolitical risks and the lingering impact of elevated energy costs.
Technical outlook continues to favor the bears
From a technical perspective, the market remains firmly under sellers’ control. EUR/USD is trading below all major moving averages, including the long-term 200-period moving average, while a sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues to confirm a well-established downtrend. Following the break below the 1.1500 support zone, downside momentum accelerated, with the pair now testing the 1.1400–1.1420 support area. A sustained move below this region could open the door toward 1.1350 and potentially 1.1300. To ease bearish pressure, EUR/USD would need to reclaim the 1.1500–1.1550 resistance zone.
Key factors to watch
In the coming days, market attention will focus on U.S. macroeconomic releases, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and any new signals regarding the future path of interest rates. As long as the yield differential between the United States and the eurozone remains in favor of the dollar and the technical structure stays bearish, the baseline scenario remains for continued downside pressure on EUR/USD, with risks skewed toward a move in the direction of 1.13, as previously discussed in EUR/USD extends losses amid renewed dollar demand.
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