Coinbase stock drops 3.3% as sellers dominate short-term trend

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Coinbase drops 3.3% to $159.31 today

Highlights

Coinbase has expanded its derivatives platform by launching pre-IPO perpetual futures for OpenAI and Anthropic, targeting sophisticated non-U.S. traders seeking exposure to private AI company valuations.
These USDC-settled contracts are settled on company-wide metrics and do not grant equity, providing broader access to AI sector speculation prior to IPOs.
COIN/USD remains under heavy selling pressure, trading below key moving averages with a high likelihood of drifting between $153.28 and $165.34 in the near term.

Derivatives expansion as AI pre-IPO futures attract trader flows

Coinbase has launched full trading for ANTHROPIC-PERP and OPENAI-PERP pre-IPO perpetual futures, enabling eligible non-U.S. traders to speculate on the valuations of private artificial intelligence companies OpenAI and Anthropic before their public listings. This move expands Coinbase's derivatives market, building on its earlier introduction of pre-IPO contracts such as those tied to SpaceX, and enhances its offering for sophisticated traders attracted to thematic exposure via USDC-settled contracts. The new products do not confer direct ownership and instead settle based on company-wide valuation metrics, according to Barchart, providing a broader range of access to innovative underlying assets though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals as technical resistance limits upside potential

On the hourly chart, COIN is trading below both MA-20 ($165.13) and MA-50 ($165.63), with the longer-term MA-200 at $237.43 acting as an indicator of persistent selling pressure. The immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $168.51, while downside support is found at $153.28. Momentum indicators confirm the weak sentiment: RSI (41.54) and CCI are both firmly in sell territory; MACD also remains bearish; and both Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) are signaling oversold conditions. ADX reads as neutral and the Awesome Oscillator supports the prevailing move, confirming a technical setup weighted toward continued downside, with oversold signals suggesting the potential for near-term relief.

Limited upside as downside risk dominates short-term outlook

Over the coming days, COIN is expected to trade between $153.28 and $165.34, representing a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained upside move remains very low, with the likelihood of further downside elevated. The baseline scenario envisions prices drifting sideways within the defined range, while a bullish scenario would require a close above resistance near $168.51. A clear breach below the $153.28 support could trigger another leg lower in the short term.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Coinbase’s price action as under persistent selling pressure despite expanding its derivatives product lineup. He notes that momentum indicators remain firmly negative and the technical backdrop favors further downside, with oversold readings only hinting at a possible short-term stabilisation. Downside support is clearly defined at $153.28 while resistance sits higher at $168.51. "The base case is for sideways or lower until strong resistance levels are reclaimed; upside conviction remains absent as long as bearish momentum dominates."

Previously it was reported that Coinbase faced persistent technical weakness and bearish momentum despite ongoing product expansion in derivatives and advanced trading tools. The latest developments confirm this cautious outlook, with sustained downside pressure and heightened volatility highlighting $153.28 as a critical support level to monitor for potential risk of further declines.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.