Natural gas is trading near $3.20, while the market remains balanced between seasonal demand and comfortable inventories. The latest EIA data showed a 73 Bcf storage build for the week ending June 12, bringing total stocks to 2,759 Bcf, which is 151 Bcf above the five-year average, but 29 Bcf below the level seen a year earlier.
Fundamental drivers
Prices are supported by forecasts of hotter weather in the US and expectations of higher power-sector demand for air conditioning. At the same time, rising production and still-elevated storage levels are limiting the upside potential. In its June outlook, the EIA expects Henry Hub prices to remain relatively stable in 2026, as supply grows faster than demand despite increasing LNG exports.
Technical picture
On the 4-hour chart, natural gas is holding above the rising long-term moving average and the $3.15-3.20 zone, but momentum has weakened after the recent advance. The nearest resistance is around $3.30-3.35, followed by the key $3.40-3.50 area. A break below $3.15 could deepen the correction toward $3.10 and $3.05.
Conclusion
The base-case scenario remains neutral to moderately positive as long as the price holds above $3.15, but further upside will require stronger weather signals or a slowdown in storage injections. Without that, rallies toward $3.35-3.50 may continue to face selling pressure, as excess inventories, as noted in my article Natural gas consolidates above key support amid strong LNG demand, are still restraining a sustained bullish trend.
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