Quiet trading for Euro vs Indian Rupee as ₹109.5861 resistance holds

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Euro vs Indian Rupee gains 0.62% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India intervened to stabilize the rupee after a sharp decline, injecting foreign currency liquidity and reducing immediate volatility.
Renewed overseas fund flows into Indian assets and easing oil prices have supported the rupee’s rebound from late-May lows.
EUR/INR maintains a bullish technical structure, with momentum signals positive and a 71% probability of testing the ₹109.5861 upper range in the coming days.

RBI intervention steadies rupee as foreign inflows return

The Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to stabilize the rupee after a drop to a near three-week low, injecting foreign currency liquidity and actively working to defend the currency, according to Marketscreener. This intervention has reduced immediate rupee volatility and helps to sustain steady conditions for EUR/INR traders. Additional support has come from renewed interest in Indian assets by global fund managers as oil prices have eased and the rupee has staged a rebound from its late-May lows, as reported by Economictimes Indiatimes.

Positive momentum persists as overbought signals prompt caution

Short-term technical levels show EUR/INR trading above the MA-20 at ₹108.4586 and the MA-50 at ₹108.2481 on the hourly chart, as well as the MA-200 at ₹107.9984 on the daily timeframe. Immediate support is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun level at ₹108.4198. Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicate momentum remains positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.91, while Stochastic RSI and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) highlight overbought conditions, suggesting the potential for short-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power is currently in buy mode, and the Awesome Oscillator supports the current move.

Upside favored as volatility bands define trading outlook

Over the next two to three trading days, EUR/INR is expected to trade between ₹108.4957 and ₹109.5861. Probabilities favor an upward move with a 71% chance, while a downside move is estimated at 29%. Should the pair break above resistance, a test of the upper end of the volatility band is likely; a drop below support at the Kijun level could trigger a downward scenario within the established range.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that EUR/INR momentum remains positive above key moving averages, but overbought technicals suggest potential near-term exhaustion. He sees the Reserve Bank of India's intervention as effective in stabilizing the rupee, though risks cannot be ignored if support at the Kijun level is lost. While capital inflows and oil price relief support a steady environment, caution is warranted if volatility returns. "For now, I remain defensive and will watch closely how EUR/INR reacts to the ₹108.4198 support before taking any stance."

Previously it was reported that EUR/INR maintained a constructive trend amid improving payment infrastructure and a bullish technical backdrop. The current analysis reinforces this positive stance, with ongoing central bank intervention and robust momentum readings pointing to a prevailing scenario where traders should closely monitor the upper end of the volatility range for potential breakout opportunities.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.