US Dollar vs Korean Won trades flat after accelerating foreign selling of Korean stocks

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US Dollar vs Korean Won down 0.59%

Highlights

Sustained weakness in the South Korean won, trading above ₩1,500 for over a month, reflects persistent demand for the US dollar.
Accelerating capital outflows and foreign investor net selling of ₩148 trillion in stocks intensify pressure and volatility for the won.
USD/KRW shows strong intraday selling pressure, with the likely range at ₩1,534–₩1,549 and downside probability at 73%.

Capital outflows and foreign selling intensify won’s persistent slide

Continued weakness in the South Korean won has kept the currency above the ₩1,500 threshold for more than a month, with levels approaching ₩1,560, according to Koreatimes Co. This prolonged depreciation signals lasting demand for the US dollar, likely stemming from persistent local and global pressures. Data from Koreajoongangdaily reveals that accelerating capital outflows and record net selling of Korean stocks by foreign investors, totaling ₩148 trillion ($95 billion) in the first half of the year, have further contributed to downward pressure on the won. These combined factors underscore an ongoing environment of FX volatility and cross-border portfolio adjustments.

Bearish momentum prevails as intraday resistance limits rebound

On the hourly chart, USD/KRW is trading below the MA-20 at ₩1,550 and the MA-50 at ₩1,551, while the daily chart shows support from the long-term MA-200 at ₩1,480. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₩1,550 is identified as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators provide a bearish profile: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a sell, Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30.74, firmly in oversold territory. Additional momentum readings from the Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Bull/Bear Power, and the Awesome Oscillator confirm strong intraday selling pressure.

Downside bias likely as resistance caps bullish breakout risk

Looking ahead to the next 2–3 trading days, USD/KRW is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band between ₩1,534 and ₩1,549. Model scenarios assign a 27% probability to an upside move and a 73% probability of further downside. Consolidation near current levels is the baseline, but a clear bullish move would require breaking above resistance at ₩1,550, while loss of support at ₩1,534 could trigger additional declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the protracted weakness of the won as a clear signal of structural pressures and investor caution. He believes foreign capital outflows and steady demand for USD are driving both sentiment and price action. Technical conditions and momentum remain bearish, but longer-term support remains in play. The analyst maintains a constructive stance on stabilization prospects if capital flows moderate. "If the won can hold above ₩1,534 and capital outflows subside, I expect a return of confidence and a more stable FX environment in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that bullish momentum in USD/KRW was supported by persistent won weakness and favorable technical conditions. However, the current shift to bearish momentum signals heightened risk of further declines below ₩1,534 if weak sentiment and capital outflows persist, making this support level a critical threshold to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.