EUR/USD continues to consolidate after recovering from late June lows, with price holding inside the well-defined 1.1400 to 1.1465 range visible on the hourly chart. The recent rebound has been supported by softer U.S. macroeconomic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve can afford a more measured policy approach.
At the same time, investors remain reluctant to establish aggressive positions ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide fresh guidance on the U.S. rate outlook.
ECB outlook provides limited support
The euro continues to benefit from expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a relatively restrictive stance compared with earlier market expectations, even though policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged at the next meeting. Improving confidence that eurozone inflation risks have become more balanced has helped stabilize the single currency, although trade uncertainty and slowing regional growth continue to limit upside potential.
Technical picture points to consolidation
The hourly chart suggests that EUR/USD remains in a corrective recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. Price is trading above its short and medium-term moving averages, while the long-term moving average continues to slope lower, highlighting that the broader trend has yet to turn positive. The pair is oscillating inside the highlighted 1.1400 to 1.1465 resistance zone, where buyers and sellers remain closely balanced. A sustained move above this range would improve the near-term outlook, while a break below 1.1400 could shift attention back toward recent lows.
Fed minutes could determine the next breakout
For now, the market remains highly sensitive to incoming U.S. macroeconomic data and central bank communication. Any confirmation that the Federal Reserve is becoming more comfortable with easing inflation risks could weigh further on the U.S. dollar and support EUR/USD. Conversely, a more cautious message from policymakers or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic releases could reinforce dollar demand and keep the pair trapped below resistance for longer. As stated in the article EUR/USD holds key support as softer U.S. data challenges dollar strength, near-term outlook remains negative.
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