Tesla stock price rebounds after J.P. Morgan upgrade
Tesla has returned to the spotlight following its strong second-quarter delivery report and an upgraded rating from J.P. Morgan. However, the rally has also triggered a new wave of profit-taking.
Following its second-quarter results, investors turned their attention back to TSLA. The company delivered 480,126 vehicles, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 396,466, while production reached 451,758 vehicles, well above expectations of 361,034. The strong operating performance confirmed improving demand and eased concerns about excess inventory.
Despite the positive news, investors took profits after the stock's sharp rally in recent days.
Another positive catalyst came from J.P. Morgan, which upgraded Tesla from Underweight to Neutral and raised its price target to $475. The upgrade helped restore bullish momentum, allowing the stock to recover its losses from July 2.
Tesla needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average
The scenario outlined in our previous analysis has fully played out. Tesla shares decisively broke through the $393–395 resistance zone and successfully established themselves above the $400 level.
The market's attention now shifts to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $420. A sustained move above this level would open the way toward the next resistance zone between $433 and $440.
In the event of a short-term pullback, the 50-day SMA near $407 will serve as the nearest support. A break below this level would increase the probability of another test of the psychologically important $400 mark.
Earnings will be Tesla's next major catalyst
The market is gradually shifting its focus from quarterly delivery figures to Robotaxi, autonomous driving technology, and Tesla's broader AI strategy. The company's next major catalyst will be its earnings report on July 22, which will show whether the strong operational performance translates into equally strong financial results.
In the near term, the key technical factor will be Tesla's ability to establish itself above the 200-day SMA, which would confirm that the current bullish momentum remains intact.
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