Tesla eyes breakout after holding support
Tesla has once again moved into the spotlight thanks to continued progress in autonomous driving technology. However, in the short term, investors are likely to focus less on the company's long-term ambitions and more on its upcoming vehicle delivery data.
The biggest positive catalyst for Tesla remains the development of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Following the initial rollout of its robotaxi service, analysts increasingly view autonomous driving - not the automotive business itself - as Tesla's primary long-term value driver.
The stock also received support after Morgan Stanley raised its second-quarter delivery forecast. The bank now expects Tesla to deliver approximately 413,000 vehicles, up from its previous estimate of around 373,000, and above the current market consensus of roughly 401,000 vehicles. The upward revision reflects stronger vehicle registrations and sales across major international markets during April and May.
Tesla rebounds from key support
TSLA shares tested the $367.70 support level and held it convincingly, as outlined in our previous analysis.
If the stock opens the regular trading session above $382, the probability of a move toward the local trendline resistance in the $393–395 range will increase significantly.
Meanwhile, the RSI (14) remains in neutral territory, suggesting there are currently no major technical obstacles to a strong directional move. The next trend is likely to be determined by fundamental catalysts - most importantly, the upcoming vehicle delivery report.
Delivery data will define Tesla's next move
Despite growing investor enthusiasm surrounding FSD, robotaxis, and artificial intelligence, Tesla's near-term share price performance still depends largely on its core automotive business.
If delivery figures confirm improving demand, the stock could receive fresh upward momentum. However, weaker-than-expected results could quickly revive bearish sentiment and trigger another wave of profit-taking.
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