Brent holds weekly advance despite Friday pullback

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Brent holds weekly advance

Highlights

Brent remains on track for strong weekly gains despite Friday's pullback.
Red Sea tanker attacks have intensified supply disruption fears.
Multiple global export routes now face elevated security risks.

Brent crude fell 4.1% to $96.57 a barrel after briefly rising above $100 for the first time since May. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 3.8% to $88.88 a barrel. Despite Friday's pullback, both benchmarks remain on track for strong weekly gains as geopolitical risks continue to dominate market sentiment, Reuters reported.

Red Sea attacks deepen supply concerns

Markets rallied sharply after Iran-backed Houthi forces said they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears that energy flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be disrupted. The waterway links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is the world's second-most important oil shipping route after the Strait of Hormuz.

The attacks come as the military confrontation between the United States and Iran intensifies. President Donald Trump has threatened significant military retaliation against Iran and the Houthis, while Tehran has continued to warn that additional energy routes could become targets if hostilities expand.

Shipping activity has already slowed across key export corridors. Kazakhstan also reported temporary production cuts after suspected Ukrainian drone strikes forced the shutdown of its main Black Sea oil export terminal, adding another layer of uncertainty to global supplies.

Markets focus on supply risks

Despite Friday's correction, analysts continue to view the short-term outlook as supportive for crude prices because supply disruptions now extend across multiple regions.

JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of significant supply disruption could add $7 to $8 per barrel to Brent prices. If interruptions persist for three months, average Brent prices could approach $114 per barrel. ING analysts also warned that risks facing global oil flows are now greater than at any point since the conflict began, with both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea under pressure.

Energy markets face growing uncertainty

The latest price swings underscore how quickly geopolitical developments can reshape the global energy market. Brent briefly traded above $100 per barrel this week before easing, while WTI approached $90 after posting its strongest advance in weeks. With two of the world's most important oil transit routes facing heightened security threats, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of prolonged supply disruptions that could keep crude prices elevated well into the second half of the year.

Earlier, we reported that the U.S.-Iran conflict widens as Hormuz shipping traffic falls.

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