Euro vs Polish Zloty holds gains as buyers dominate and momentum indicators remain strong

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Euro vs zloty rises 0.50% today

Highlights

EUR/PLN is in a strong bullish trend, trading above all major moving averages across timeframes.
Momentum indicators are overbought, with buyers dominating but a risk of near-term exhaustion emerging.
Five-day trading range is projected between zł4.3093 and zł4.3527, with an 80%+ probability of an upside breakout if zł4.332 is surpassed.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/PLN showing pronounced bullish momentum but warns that this surge may be unsustainable in the short term. He points to technical overextension, with RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI signaling strong overbought conditions. Kharitonov is skeptical about the absence of any supportive news or fundamental catalysts alongside the move. He urges traders to be wary of a swift reversal if support at zł4.3167 falters. "This rally lacks solid backing and I advise defensive positioning until price action confirms genuine follow-through."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the robust uptrend in EUR/PLN, underpinned by strong technical breakout above major moving averages. He notes that the bullish market structure remains intact, offering attractive opportunities as buyers control momentum. Karapetjanc sees further growth likely, especially if price secures a lasting move above zł4.332. "With upward momentum accelerating, I expect the pair to target new highs within the zł4.3527 range in the near term."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, believes EUR/PLN displays a clear technical breakout but maintains a cautious stance due to several overbought signals. Mehta notes the price's proximity to key resistance, presenting possible tactical trades both for continuation and mean reversion if volatility spikes. "If the pair fails to build above zł4.332, a short-term pullback could offer contrarian entry opportunities for active traders."

Bullish trend solidifies as momentum faces overbought signals

EUR/PLN is trading above all its key moving averages, with the current price of zł4.331 over the 20-day (zł4.281), 50-day (zł4.2575), and 200-day (zł4.2413) averages. This reinforces a bullish outlook across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes, with immediate resistance at zł4.332 and support at zł4.3167. Momentum indicators confirm strong buyer control: the MACD and ADX suggest ongoing upward momentum. RSI at 73.59, Stochastic RSI at 83.23, and CCI at 117.78 all signal overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive at 0.0268, reflecting intraday buying strength. The price action is near the daily high with intraday volatility at 0.66%, underscoring the strong upward move. While momentum is robust, overbought signals highlight potential short-term exhaustion.

Earlier, analysts noted that the Euro vs Polish Zloty pair was supported by strong underlying momentum, with monetary policy stability serving as a key backdrop for continued gains. Fresh technical data and persistent buyer dominance reinforce the bullish outlook, making a sustained move above zł4.332 a critical signal for the next potential breakout.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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