Strategy shares technical analysis: Breakout attempt nears $96.63 resistance

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Strategy gains 3.77% on buyback news

Highlights

Strategy Inc. announced $1 billion share buyback and $1 billion digital credit securities repurchase, signaling aggressive capital allocation to support share demand.
Recent $466.7 million share sale boosted cash reserves to $3 billion without impacting bitcoin holdings, with a new BTC Monetization Program allowing up to $1.25 billion in future sales.
MSTR/USD shows short-term strength but faces medium- and long-term bearish pressure, with expected trading between $90.87 and $99.87 and a 61% chance of upward movement.

Buybacks and BTC monetization boost capital flows amid steady reserves

Strategy Inc.'s announcement on July 13, 2026, of both a $1 billion share buyback and a $1 billion digital credit securities repurchase program represents a direct capital allocation move supporting mechanical demand for its shares, as reported by Theblock. This follows its earlier $466.7 million capital raise between July 6 and July 12, 2026, through the sale of 4.82 million common shares that increased cash reserves to $3 billion without altering its bitcoin holdings, according to Briefs. The additional launch of a BTC Monetization Program, permitting up to $1.25 billion in future bitcoin sales, positions the company to fund reserve increases and enhance shareholder returns, amplifying market confidence in its active capital management approach.

Mixed momentum signals as intraday gains test technical boundaries

Technically, MSTR/USD is trading above the 20-period moving average at $93.8, while it remains below the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, set at $96.63 and $174.01, respectively. The daily Ichimoku Kijun level at $95.48 currently provides immediate support. Momentum indicators are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) points to a strong sell, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53.17 with a buy signal, as does the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), yet both the Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are in overbought territory and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. This divergence highlights a lack of clear short-term conviction, with bullish intraday action contrasting with the underlying momentum cues.

Upside favored for MSTR as volatility frames consolidation risk

In the next two to three trading days, MSTR/USD is anticipated to fluctuate within a $90.87 to $99.87 band based on typical volatility. Current probabilities favor an up move (61%) while downside scenarios remain possible (39%), with baseline expectations for price consolidation inside this range. A breakout above resistance could initiate a bullish setup, whereas a drop below support may prompt renewed downside pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees early positive sentiment from Strategy Inc.’s $1 billion buyback and repurchase announcement, but he remains cautious given the mixed technical picture. Upside is favored near term, yet unresolved momentum signals and price sitting below key longer-term averages reduce conviction for a decisive breakout. Kharitonov believes the base case is range-bound action, with any failure at support opening downside risk. "Until MSTR reclaims the 50-period average and momentum turns, I will stay defensive on new longs."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing technical weakness and equity dilution had reinforced a bearish outlook for Strategy shares. The latest capital allocation initiatives and BTC Monetization Program signal a more proactive stance from management, with market participants advised to monitor for a confirmed breakout above resistance as a potential pivot toward sustained bullish momentum.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.