Kalshi gas price bets point to U.S. pump prices topping $4 by late July
Rising fuel costs are back in focus as prediction market traders sharply increase expectations for higher U.S. gasoline prices this month. The move comes as oil prices extend recent gains and geopolitical tension around Iran adds pressure to energy markets.
Highlights
- Kalshi traders assign a 90% to 93% probability that U.S. national average gas prices exceed $4 per gallon by late July, with 63% odds of surpassing $4.10.
- AAA reports Wednesday’s national average gas price at $3.89 per gallon, 3 cents higher than Tuesday, while the May 21 high was $4.56 per gallon.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate for August settles at $79.60 per barrel and September Brent at $84.95, each up 0.3%, following renewed U.S. strikes on Iran affecting energy markets.
Trading odds rise as oil and gasoline prices climb
As reported by CNBC, traders on Kalshi now see a very high probability that the U.S. national average gas price moves above $4 per gallon by the end of July. The market puts the odds at about 90% to 93% for prices topping $4, and 63% for prices exceeding $4.10.The contract, which asks what the gas price in the U.S. will be this month, is set to be verified by AAA. AAA says Wednesday’s national gas price stands at $3.89, about 3 cents above Tuesday’s level.
Last month’s average already crossed $4 per gallon, while this year’s highest national average comes on May 21 at $4.56. Even so, Kalshi traders still assign less than a 5% chance that prices rise above $4.50 again before the end of the month.
Middle East tensions add pressure to energy markets
The latest gas price speculation coincides with renewed U.S. military action involving Iran. The U.S. Central Command says in posts on X that it launches a second wave of strikes on Iran at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon, following an earlier round on Wednesday morning.In one post, the command says the strikes are intended to further degrade military capabilities that Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping route remains a critical artery for global oil flows, making any disruption a closely watched risk for fuel markets.
Oil prices are also rising for three straight days. U.S. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery settles Wednesday at $79.60 per barrel, up 26 cents, or 0.3%, from the previous day, while September Brent closes at $84.95 per barrel, also up 0.3%.
Our earlier coverage of transportation producer-price inflation focused on how rising costs for freight services and transport equipment were feeding into broader producer inflation. We noted that truck and air transportation saw particularly large increases, highlighting sustained cost pressure across the sector as energy-related inputs remain a key driver.
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