What's behind National Grid's latest 2.5% stock surge?

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National grid surges 2.51% today

Highlights

National Grid is investing $1.75 billion to acquire a 35% stake in US-based Joulent, targeting surging American electricity demand.
The group aims to add over 10 gigawatts of grid capacity across the UK and US in five years, sustaining dividend growth tied to CPIH inflation.
Shares are near session highs at GBX1,247, but technicals show mixed momentum with expected trading between GBX1,210 and GBX1,270 and a 76% chance of downside.

US grid stake and expansion plans drive growth-focused positioning

National Grid has confirmed a $1.75 billion investment to acquire a 35% stake in Joulent, a US-based power infrastructure platform, targeting growth in American electricity demand. The company also plans to connect over 10 gigawatts of grid capacity across the UK and US in the next five years as part of its network expansion strategy. National Grid maintains a dividend growth policy in line with CPIH inflation, supported by regulated cash flow and ongoing asset base growth.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent price surge in National Grid as technically overstretched. He notes bullish positioning above all key moving averages, but highlights persistent negative momentum and strong nearby resistance at GBX1,251. Kharitonov points out that conflicting signals from indicators like MACD, ADX, and RSI undermine the breakout. The recent US investment adds fundamental support but could expose the stock to transatlantic risks. He cautions, "Despite solid news flow, traders must not ignore weak momentum and the high probability of reversal from current levels."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes National Grid’s investment into Joulent demonstrates management’s proactive approach to capturing transatlantic growth in electricity demand. He sees regulated cash flows and the ongoing asset expansion as strengthening long-term fundamentals. The bullish structure remains intact as the stock trades above all major moving averages. Karapetjanc emphasizes, "Further growth is expected if resistance at GBX1,251 is cleared — this market offers attractive setups for forward-looking investors."

Bullish trend persists amid mixed momentum and resistance pressure

National Grid is trading above its 20-day (GBX1,235), 50-day (GBX1,233), and 200-day (GBX1,223) moving averages, indicating bullish momentum across all time frames. The closest resistance is at GBX1,251, with support established by today’s high at GBX1,246. Technical signals are mixed: the MACD shows strong buy momentum, but the ADX is neutral. The RSI, CCI, and HMA indicate sell signals, while the Stochastic RSI and BBP suggest the stock is oversold and selling dominates intraday activity. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. Current trading is near the session high, with intraday volatility at 1.55%. Negative momentum measures persist despite strong price action, indicating a divergence between technical signals and short-term strength.

Earlier, analysts noted that the financial profiles of utility sector assets were coming under pressure due to elevated capital spending and ongoing regulatory scrutiny. National Grid’s recent expansion into the US market, coupled with mixed technical momentum, highlights the importance of monitoring key breakout and support levels as continued volatility could define trading opportunities in the near term.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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