U.S. import prices post stronger June increase as core goods costs rise

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US import prices June rise

Highlights

U.S. import prices rise 0.3% in June versus economist expectations for a 0.7% decline, with core goods costs driving the upside surprise.
Import prices jump 7.1% year-over-year, the largest annual gain since August 2022, while imported fuel prices fall 0.4% in June but are up 44.1% annually.
The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire drives oil to a one-month high, threatening the recent moderation in energy-related import costs.

June import price data and key drivers

As reported by Reuters, citing the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. import prices increase 0.3% in June after a downwardly revised 1.7% advance in May. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.7% decline after a previously reported 1.9% rise in May.

Over the 12 months through June, import prices surge 7.1%, up from 6.6% in May and marking the biggest annual gain since August 2022. The monthly rise contrasts with declines in producer and consumer prices in June, which are linked to lower oil prices while a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in place.

Imported fuel prices fall 0.4% in June after rising 12.6% in May, though they are still up 44.1% from a year earlier. Imported food prices ease 0.2%, while prices excluding food and fuels rise 0.4% after advancing 0.8% in May.

Business demand keeps core import inflation elevated

The so-called core imported inflation measure, which excludes food and fuels, increases 4.6% in the 12 months through June. A 0.4% increase in imported capital goods prices supports that gain, reflecting strong demand for technology products as businesses ramp up investment in artificial intelligence.

Prices for imported consumer goods excluding automotives rise 0.3%, adding to broader cost pressures in non-energy categories. By contrast, the cost of imported automotive vehicles, parts and engines eases 0.1%.

The article also notes that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran collapses last week, pushing oil prices to a one-month high. That shift suggests the recent relief from lower energy costs may prove temporary if geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt commodity markets.

Our earlier coverage of the market response to renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities explained how the flare-up pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns about energy-driven inflation. We also noted that investors rotated toward U.S. Treasuries as cooling inflation data and resilient labor readings supported demand for government bonds, keeping attention on the Fed’s policy outlook.

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