Wolfe Research flags earnings-backed stocks for volatile U.S. market

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Highlights

Wolfe Research identifies stocks beating analyst expectations, showing positive price action, and receiving upward 2026 EPS revisions as more resilient amid market volatility.
S&P 500 trades about 0.8% lower for July, with investor concerns focused on Iran war-driven oil prices, consumer costs, and increased AI capex commentary affecting Alphabet and Tesla shares.
BlackRock, UnitedHealth Group, and Philip Morris lead Wolfe's defensive list, with UnitedHealth posting $6.38 EPS on $112.03 billion revenue and Philip Morris receiving a $216 BTIG price target.

Earnings screen highlights defensive names

As reported by CNBC, Wolfe Research said in a Monday note to clients that stocks beating analyst expectations over the past two quarters, while also posting positive price action around results and upward 2026 earnings revisions, are positioned to hold up better in a choppy market environment.

Analyst Chris Senyek wrote that companies delivering top- and bottom-line beats with supportive year-to-date 2026 estimated earnings per share revisions are likely to provide durable returns. The firm’s screen comes as the S&P 500 remains about 0.8% lower for July and fails to surpass the record highs reached in June.

Wolfe’s view reflects broader investor concerns tied to the Iran war, which is keeping attention on elevated oil prices and the risk of higher consumer-goods costs. It also comes as questions build around artificial intelligence spending after Alphabet and Tesla shares fell last week following comments about higher AI-related capital expenditure on earnings calls.

BlackRock, UnitedHealth and Philip Morris stand out

Among the names cited, BlackRock reported second-quarter earnings on July 15, prompting JPMorgan to upgrade the asset manager. JPMorgan analyst Michael Cho said BlackRock is executing across multiple growth drivers and pointed to a strong setup for flows, organic revenue and operating leverage.

UnitedHealth Group also exceeded revenue and earnings expectations on July 16. The health insurer posted adjusted earnings of $6.38 a share on revenue of $112.03 billion, ahead of an LSEG consensus forecast of $4.90 a share on revenue of $110.85 billion, while Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating after the release.

Philip Morris International also made Wolfe’s list as smoke-free products continue gaining traction. CEO Jacek Olczak said last week he was very pleased with developments beyond the quarterly figures, and BTIG initiated coverage this month with a buy rating and a $216 price target, implying about 10% upside from Monday’s close.

Big Tech AI infrastructure spending and rising capex expectations were in focus in our earlier coverage, as the S&P 500’s index-level calm masked growing divergence among its constituents. We noted that Alphabet’s higher 2026 spending outlook intensified scrutiny of cash flow and debt across peers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta ahead of earnings, increasing the risk that stock-specific swings could spill over into broader market volatility.

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