Weiss Ratings warns AI financing structure could raise U.S. banking risks

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AI financing risks for banks

Highlights

Broadcom agreed to loan Anthropic $42 billion to lease its chips and is seeking an additional $60 billion for the same, reflecting highly interconnected AI financing.
Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft project combined capital expenditures exceeding $790 billion through 2026, with a majority funneled into AI infrastructure and chips.
Weiss Ratings warns the circular financing model exposes banks, insurers, and U.S. equities to systemic risk if AI profits and growth fail to materialize as anticipated.

AI infrastructure funding model draws crisis warnings

As reported by Weiss Ratings, the current AI buildout is relying on what it describes as circular financing, with chipmakers, cloud groups and financial firms repeatedly funding infrastructure expansion through interconnected loans, leases and off-balance-sheet vehicles.

The report points to Broadcom’s new agreement to loan Anthropic $42 billion to lease its chips, alongside efforts to raise another $60 billion for the same purpose. It also highlights similar arrangements involving Amazon and Microsoft, arguing that the same small group of companies keeps appearing across funding, equipment supply and end demand.

Weiss Ratings says major technology groups are sustaining the cycle with exceptionally high capital spending. Alphabet expects 2026 capital expenditures of $195 billion to $205 billion, Meta projects $130 billion to $145 billion including a $27 billion deal with Blue Owl, Amazon has lifted its capital-spending plan to roughly $220 billion, and Microsoft spent $41 billion in its latest quarter, with about two-thirds directed toward CPUs and GPUs.

The analysis also notes that chipmakers receiving this spending are reinvesting heavily into AI capacity through their own financings. Broadcom earlier this year raised $35 billion through lenders including Blackstone and Apollo to help build new data center capacity, and work has continued on raising another $75 billion or more through special purpose vehicles that buy chips and lease them to customers. Nvidia is also cited as a leading participant after partnering with six large financial firms on another $500 billion aimed at AI infrastructure.

Potential fallout for banks, insurers and equities

Weiss Ratings argues that the structure leaves lenders exposed to assets that may depreciate quickly, rather than to durable collateral with predictable recovery values. The group compares the risk to earlier credit excesses, saying private credit loans tied to data centers and computing equipment could unravel if AI revenues and profits do not grow fast enough to support repayment.

In its view, the consequences would extend beyond a handful of private credit funds or technology companies because AI investment has become a central driver of the broader U.S. economy in recent years. It says these loans have spread across multiple parts of the financial system, including banks and annuity products sold by major insurers, while the companies most exposed to the trend also underpin much of the U.S. stock market.

The report warns that if the AI buildout slows materially, the effects could hit economic growth, pressure credit performance and trigger broader market losses. Weiss Ratings says a failure by AI and Magnificent 7 companies to deliver the expected surge in profits could cause a sharp repricing across U.S. equities and amplify stress through the financial system.

AI infrastructure financing pressures were previously highlighted in our coverage of Intel and Broadcom executives warning that access to capital—and the rising cost of it—could become a bigger bottleneck for AI growth than chip, memory, or power constraints. The piece noted that sustaining the buildout will increasingly depend on whether AI investments deliver clear economic returns, as investors scrutinize funding structures and long-term commitments more closely.

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