Nvidia stock rises 4.3% as Morgan Stanley lifts target to $200 on AI chip demand

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Highlights

- Nvidia rose 4.3% to $183.35 after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $200, citing strong demand for its new Blackwell chips.

- Technical indicators support further upside, with $180 now acting as short-term support and $200 as the next major resistance.

- Robust AI infrastructure spending and upbeat client earnings bolster Nvidia’s outlook, though export risks to China remain a downside factor.

The recent rebound from the $167–$170 zone acted as a successful retest of the previous support area, suggesting renewed buyer interest. Technically, the $180 level has now flipped into short-term support, while $187.50–$190 forms the next key resistance range.

Nvidia is currently trading well above its 50-day moving average (around $166), with a strong upward slope. The 200-day moving average, near $125, remains far below current price levels, underscoring the longer-term uptrend. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are approaching the 70 level but are not yet overbought, which leaves room for further price appreciation. The MACD is turning bullish again, hinting at a continuation of the current upside move.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume has picked up significantly during the recent breakout, with over 170 million shares traded, compared to the 30-day average volume of around 50–60 million. This confirms that institutional interest is strong and adds conviction to the breakout. Provided the price holds above $180, the technical structure favors continued gains with limited downside risk in the near term.

Market context and analyst commentary

Nvidia remains the central beneficiary of the ongoing boom in AI infrastructure spending, and the latest upgrade from Morgan Stanley reinforces that thesis. On July 30, Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month price target on NVDA from $170 to $200, citing a robust ramp-up in sales of the new Blackwell architecture chips. Analyst Joseph Moore reiterated an Overweight rating and noted that customer demand still “massively exceeds supply,” with a projected quarterly revenue increase from near zero to over $30 billion for Blackwell.

The upgrade also reflects stronger-than-expected earnings from Nvidia’s largest customers—Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet—all of whom reported this week. These tech giants reaffirmed their plans to increase capital expenditure in AI-related infrastructure through 2025, which directly supports Nvidia’s long-term earnings visibility.

Importantly, Morgan Stanley’s valuation assumes a 33x forward earnings multiple on projected 2026 EPS, discounted back to present value. While some other chip stocks have shown signs of consolidation, Nvidia continues to outperform due to its dominance in high-performance GPUs and software stack. Despite some lingering concerns about export controls—especially the U.S. ban on advanced chip sales to China—the market appears confident that Nvidia’s global customer base and diversified product line will mitigate the impact.

Price forecast and near-term outlook

In the base case scenario, Nvidia consolidates above $180 during August and makes a run toward the $190–$200 level in September, fueled by continued momentum, strong institutional demand, and supportive earnings guidance. In a more bullish scenario, NVDA could trade up to $210–$220 by year-end. This would require upgrades to forward EPS estimates and a reaffirmation of capex trends from major hyperscalers.

On the downside, risks include any deterioration in global trade relations—especially further export restrictions on AI chips—or a surprise slowdown in customer deployment. Should such events materialize, the stock could revisit the $165–$170 support range. However, technical support at $160–$165 is expected to hold unless there is a sharp deterioration in macro conditions.

Loop Capital raised its Nvidia price target to $250, citing its leadership in generative AI and dominance in data center GPUs, while Mizuho lifted its target to $185 on strong demand and earnings momentum. Nvidia’s next earnings report on August 27 is expected to show continued strong year-over-year growth.

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