Nasdaq Composite dip-buying hinges on PCE inflation data release

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Sholanke Dele

26.09.2025

Nasdaq Composite dip-buying hinges on PCE inflation data release — Nasdaq traders await inflation data

The Nasdaq Composite Index extended its losing streak, closing lower for a third consecutive session on Thursday.

The index fell nearly 0.5% after reaching an intraday low near 22,200 before buyers stepped in to limit losses and push the close closer to 22,400. This move was significant because it showed resilience at a critical Fibonacci support area, keeping the broader bullish structure intact despite recent weakness. The 78.6 retracement level held firm, protecting the higher low set earlier at 22,065.

- Nasdaq extends losing streak, but Fibonacci support near 22,200 stays intact

- Nasdaq futures edge lower ahead of key PCE inflation data release

- Nasdaq RSI reset suggests dip-buying potential if inflation cools market fears

Friday’s premarket action reflects continued caution as the Nasdaq futures traded about 0.22% lower. Investors are positioning ahead of the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The data is being closely monitored to assess whether inflationary pressures are easing enough to support expectations of policy easing later this year. In parallel, market participants are also digesting the impact of fresh tariffs on imported goods, a factor that complicates the growth outlook for multinational firms heavily represented in the Nasdaq.

Nasdaq price dynamic (Aug - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

From a technical perspective, the three-day decline has the appearance of a retracement rather than a reversal. Market structure has not shifted into a bearish trend since the higher low at 22,065 remains intact. Although profit-taking has pressed the Nasdaq index lower, yet the absence of a structural breakdown signals that buyers still have the upper hand, particularly if today’s PCE data offers relief.

Nasdaq traders weigh tariff risks alongside Federal Reserve inflation outlook

A hotter-than-expected reading could extend losses and potentially push the Nasdaq closer to retest the 22,200 level. On the other hand, a softer inflation figure could reignite risk appetite and provide fuel for a renewed push toward the record high at 22,800. The reaction to this data may determine whether this week’s weakness is merely a pause in a broader uptrend or the start of a deeper correction.

The daily Relative Strength Index has cooled from overbought levels and now sits near 62, a reading that signals ongoing bullish conditions despite recent softness. This shift suggests the retracement is creating room for new buyers to enter at more attractive levels. If the PCE report supports an equity-friendly outcome, the RSI reset could prove to be a technical confirmation of buying the dip.

As the week concludes. strong support at 22,200 has preserved the bullish structure so far, yet upcoming inflation data holds the power to either validate dip-buying strategies or deepen the current pullback. Investors will likely treat today’s session as pivotal in shaping the near-term trajectory of the index.

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