Nvidia stock gains 1% as Wall Street anticipates sustained AI momentum

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Nvidia stock gains

Highlights

- Nvidia hit a record $191.05 before pulling back below $190, reflecting both strong momentum and profit-taking.

- The rally is supported by surging AI chip demand and a favorable macro backdrop following the Fed’s rate cut.

- Analysts maintain bullish views, with targets up to $235 highlighting confidence in Nvidia’s long-term growth trajectory.

Nvidia’s breakout above prior resistance levels underscores strong investor conviction. The stock has cleared the $185 mark, turning it into near-term support, while new resistance is building around $195–$200. The 50-Day Moving Average is trending sharply upward near $175, with the 200-day moving average at approximately $160, suggesting a robust uptrend is firmly intact. If Nvidia maintains momentum above its short-term averages, the path toward $200–$220 is technically feasible.

Momentum indicators support the bullish case: the RSI currently hovers near 65, indicating strength but not yet overbought conditions. The MACD line remains positive, with room for additional upside before a potential correction. trading volume has consistently spiked on rallies, reflecting institutional participation and reinforcing the bullish trend. Options market sentiment shows elevated call activity in the $200–$220 strike range, signaling expectations that new highs are within reach.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (August 2025 - October 2025). Source: TradingView

That said, the stock’s sharp appreciation leaves it vulnerable to pullbacks. If support at $185 fails, the next downside level lies at $175, with the $160 zone acting as critical long-term support. For traders, these thresholds are key to monitoring whether the breakout is sustainable or prone to reversal. A break below these levels could trigger accelerated selling as momentum-driven investors exit positions.

AI leadership strengthened by OpenAI deal

Nvidia reached an all-time high of $191.05 on Thursday as investors applauded its $100 billion partnership with OpenAI, though shares later slipped back below $190. The deal reinforces Nvidia’s strategic importance as the backbone of generative AI infrastructure, helping it secure a long-term demand pipeline for its GPUs and related systems. Including the latest rally, NVDA is now up roughly 120% from its April lows, underscoring how central the AI boom has become to its valuation.

The stock’s momentum has also been fueled by macro conditions, particularly the Federal Reserve’s September 17 decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. That move triggered a broad-based rally in growth and tech names, with Nvidia among the biggest beneficiaries thanks to its high sensitivity to market liquidity. The rate cut combined with continued enthusiasm around AI adoption has given the stock an additional push beyond fundamental growth expectations.

Wall Street remains highly constructive on Nvidia’s outlook. TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter reaffirmed a “Buy” rating and a $235 price target, pointing to the company’s NVLink interconnect technology as a wide moat in the scale-up networking market. He argued that Nvidia’s system-level advantages go beyond GPUs alone, further entrenching its leadership. Broader consensus data backs this view, with most analysts maintaining a “Strong Buy” rating and an average price target of $215 — implying around 13% upside from current levels.

Price outlook and scenarios

In the base case, Nvidia maintains support above $185 and continues to benefit from strong AI-driven demand and the OpenAI partnership. Under this scenario, the stock could trade in the $200–$220 range over the next one to two months, particularly if momentum in broader tech indices remains supportive. Steady order flow for its GPUs from hyperscale cloud providers would reinforce this outcome. Additionally, investor confidence could remain intact as long as earnings align with elevated market expectations.

In the bull case, successful execution of Blackwell chip launches, combined with rising AI adoption across industries, could propel Nvidia toward $250 and beyond. A re-rating by major investment banks, paired with easing macro headwinds such as lower interest rates, would amplify this move. Expanding its dominance in networking and software ecosystems could further solidify upside potential. Moreover, breakthroughs in securing long-term supply agreements would provide additional catalysts for share price expansion.

Nvidia came into focus this week as Meta announced the acquisition of AI chip startup Rivos, a move aimed at advancing its in-house silicon strategy under the MTIA initiative. While Meta works to reduce long-term reliance on external suppliers, it and other hyperscalers still depend heavily on Nvidia hardware, as shown by Meta’s recent $14.2 billion deal with CoreWeave.

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