NIO stock falls 6% despite optimistic revenue and earnings forecast

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Andreas Kristo

10.10.2025

NIO stock falls 6% despite optimistic revenue and earnings forecast — NIO shares have staged a sharp rebound over the past month, rising 37%

As of October 10, NIO stock is trading at $7.38, down 6% in the past 24 hours. This drop comes after a strong 37% rally over the past month and likely reflects short-term profit-taking ahead of NIO’s anticipated earnings release, rather than renewed structural weakness.

Highlights

- NIO stock declined 6% on October 10, likely due to short-term profit-taking after a strong 37% rally over the past month.

- Despite the pullback, investor sentiment remains supported by improving earnings projections, including a forecasted 22% revenue increase and narrower losses.

- Technical momentum has shifted positive, but the stock faces key resistance near $9.00 ahead of its Q3 earnings release.

From a technical perspective, NIO has shifted into a recovery trend, following a strong monthly rally of over 37%. The stock is now trading above its 50-day moving average, which sits near $7.90, but remains slightly below the 200-day MA around $8.85. This crossover signals improving momentum, though a full bullish confirmation would require a sustained break above the 200-day level with expanding volume.

Support is now firmer in the $7.00–$7.30 range, reinforced by recent consolidation and buying interest following the September rally. If that support zone holds, the next test will be the $8.50–$9.00 resistance band, which coincides with prior rejection levels and the descending trendline from the 2024 highs. A close above $9.00 could shift the medium-term structure decisively bullish.

NIO stock price dynamics (August 2025 - October 2025). Source: TradingView.

Volume trends show increased participation during up days, suggesting growing investor confidence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 58–60, nearing overbought territory, which may lead to short-term consolidation. Meanwhile, the Average True Range (ATR) remains elevated at around $0.42, indicating persistent volatility — a typical feature of trend transitions in high-beta growth stocks like NIO.

Earnings optimism and sector outperformance drive investor interest

Despite a 6% pullback in the last 24 hours, NIO shares have staged a sharp rebound over the past month, rising 37%, outperforming both the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector (+16.32%) and the S&P 500 (+4.03%) over the same period. This relative strength suggests increasing investor conviction ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report.

The short-term rally is fueled in part by expectations of improving fundamentals. NIO is projected to report a loss of -$0.24 per share, which would represent a 33.33% improvement from the same quarter last year. More importantly, quarterly revenue is forecast at $3.26 billion, up 22.46% year-over-year, signaling that NIO’s operational scale continues to grow despite a tough EV pricing environment. Margin concerns still linger, but topline growth has helped restore some optimism after a weak first half of the year.

Looking ahead, the full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates project revenue of $13.37 billion and a narrowed annual loss of -$0.99 per share, reflecting improvements of +46.4% and +34.44% respectively from 2024. This guidance has triggered renewed bullish sentiment from both retail and institutional investors, who see potential for sustained operating leverage if NIO can improve gross margins in the fourth quarter. However, execution remains key, and investors will be closely watching updates on cost control, delivery volumes, and cash burn in the next earnings call.

Upside bias emerging as earnings momentum builds

With NIO gaining over 37% in the last month and outperforming both its sector and the broader market, the near-term setup has shifted from consolidation to a cautiously bullish bias. Assuming the company meets or exceeds current expectations in its upcoming earnings report — including a projected revenue increase of 22.46% and a narrowed quarterly loss — the stock could push toward the $8.80–$9.50 range in the coming weeks. A decisive breakout above $9.00, especially on strong volume, would likely open the door for a test of the $10.00 level.

The base case now favors a trading range between $7.20 and $9.00, supported by improving sentiment and macro tailwinds. Investors appear to be positioning ahead of Q3 results, betting on continued delivery strength and signs of operating leverage. However, a sustained rally beyond $10 would require not just revenue growth, but also margin expansion and more disciplined cost controls — areas where NIO has struggled in past quarters.

NIO reported record September deliveries of 34,749 vehicles, signaling strong demand and improving operational scale despite intense competition in China’s EV market. The milestone boosted investor confidence and positioned the stock as one of the day’s top performers in the sector.

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