Meituan: Weak trend strength led to range-bound trading below key resistance

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Meituan slips 0.26% today

Highlights

Meituan trades at $96.25, below its MA-20 ($101.37), MA-50 ($106.38), and MA-200 ($134.64), indicating prevailing bearish momentum across all timeframes.
Southbound funds drove a net inflow of HKD 7.79 billion last week, reflecting continued institutional interest despite persistent food delivery losses and business pressures expected through late 2025.
Momentum and volatility indicators confirm seller dominance and near-oversold conditions, with a very low probability (<20%) of price rising above $101.90 resistance and higher likelihood of further decline below $91.65.

Institutional inflows counter automation optimism amid profit concerns

Meituan recently showcased advances in drone obstacle avoidance and dexterous robotic technologies at the IROS conference in Shenzhen, highlighting its ongoing investment in automation to improve delivery efficiency. Meanwhile, southbound funds led a notable net inflow of HKD 7.79 billion into the company last week, pointing to sustained institutional interest. Concerns linger around food delivery losses and business pressures through late 2025, but an early Double Eleven festival launch may help bolster core user activity.

Mixed momentum and oversold signals highlight risk of reversal

Momentum indicators show mixed signals as the D1 MACD remains neutral but with a negative value, while the ADX at 20.78 shows only modest trend strength. Both the RSI (34.43) and CCI (–113.68) suggest the stock is edging toward oversold territory, further supported by the D1 Stoch RSI and negative BBP showing sellers dominating momentum. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with this selling bias. The current price is down slightly at $96.25, slipping 0.26% from the previous close after a small gap down at the open. Price sits near the middle of today's $94.50 – $97.15 range, with moderate volatility and an intraday tone of mild pressure following the open. However, divergent indicator signals emphasize uncertainty: while some momentum measures confirm selling, oversold readings raise potential for a technical bounce.

Downside bias drives forecasts as breakout risks shape outlook

For the coming five trading days, Meituan is expected to fluctuate between $91.65 and $100.70. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a decline much more likely. The baseline scenario involves the stock consolidating within a range, while the bullish case would see a breakout above $101.90 resistance. Conversely, the bearish scenario would unfold if the price falls below the $91.65 support region, extending the downward move.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that despite the persistent bearish technical backdrop for Meituan, ongoing automation advances and significant institutional inflows signal underlying confidence in the company's long-term prospects. He observes that while short-term pressures and uncertainties remain, particularly with mixed momentum signals and ongoing business challenges, investor sentiment appears resilient and responsive to strategic developments. Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook, stating: "I believe Meituan's recent innovation push and continued fund inflows provide a foundation for optimism — any technical bounce above $101.90 could quickly shift sentiment, so I am watching closely for signs of reversal."

Previously it was noted that Meituan was experiencing sustained downward pressure with prices positioned below all key moving averages and neutral momentum indicated by MACD and ADX. The article also highlighted, via downside risk prevails amid constrained rebound, that limited prospects for recovery continued to dominate sentiment for the coming week.

Source of Data: 3690 Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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