Gold price forecast: XAU slips below $4,100 amid ETF outflows and profit-taking

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold slips below $4,100

Highlights

- Gold drops below $4,100, its sharpest weekly fall since June.

- ETF investors record biggest outflow in five months.

- Key support seen at $4,050–$4,070; deeper risk toward $3,800 if broken.

The daily chart places gold at a critical juncture. Prices are testing a rising support band between $4,050 and $4,070, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,047 now acts as the near-term pivot. As long as gold stays above this area, the broader bullish narrative remains intact. A clean break below, however, could open the door to the 50-day EMA at $3,828 and secondary support near $3,620 — levels that would signal the first meaningful correction in months.

XAU price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Upside resistance remains steep, capped by the upper channel trendline from September’s surge, which now aligns near $4,250–$4,300. The sharp 5% plunge seen earlier this week — gold’s largest one-day fall in five years — reflects an overstretched market, with speculative long positioning at multi-month highs before the sell-off.

Despite the retreat, gold remains up more than 55% for 2025, underscoring its resilience as a preferred store of value in an uncertain macro landscape. Heightened geopolitical risks, from ongoing sanctions on Russia to instability in Eastern Europe, continue to underpin a safety bid even as speculative froth unwinds.

Macro focus shifts to U.S. inflation and Fed outlook

The next directional cue will likely come from the U.S. inflation print due later Friday. Economists expect consumer prices to accelerate beyond 3% year-on-year, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue easing policy into next year. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could lift rate-cut odds, pressuring Treasury yields and lending renewed support to gold. Conversely, a soft inflation number might weigh on bullion as haven demand eases.

Meanwhile, ETF and futures positioning remain in flux. Data this week showed a significant drawdown in holdings, suggesting short-term investors are booking profits after the record run. Still, physical demand from Asia and central bank purchases have provided a partial offset, keeping longer-term fundamentals firm.

Analysts note that the market may be entering a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. “Gold’s parabolic rise was unsustainable in the near term, but the structural drivers — low real yields, global uncertainty, and strong reserve demand — are intact,” one commodities strategist said.

Outlook: Holding the $4,050 line remains key

As previously discussed, gold’s outlook hinges on whether it can maintain the $4,050–$4,070 floor. Holding this zone could stabilize sentiment and pave the way for another test of $4,250, while a decisive breakdown risks a deeper slide toward the $3,800 region.

With volatility elevated and policy uncertainty rising, traders are bracing for sharp swings around the inflation data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The question for markets now is whether this week’s reversal marks a healthy pause within the long-term uptrend — or the first sign that gold’s record-setting rally has finally run its course.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.