Gold price forecast: XAU holds firm near $4,087 as traders brace for major U.S. data

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Gold steadies near key support

Highlights

- Gold trades near $4,087 as the market prepares for delayed U.S. economic releases.

- The 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci zone at $4,073–$4,133 remains the strongest near-term support.

- Fed rate-cut odds for December fall to 46%, but gold’s uptrend remains firmly intact.

XAU holds support as investors reassess policy outlook

Gold price continues to react to shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With the market pricing only a 46% probability of a December rate cut, momentum has cooled from last week’s test of the $4,275–$4,381 supply zone. That region coincides with the 0.786–1.0 Fibonacci extension of the previous leg higher, an area sellers have defended repeatedly over the past month.

Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The pullback redirected price back into the 0.382–0.5 retracement band at $4,073–$4,133. Buyers stepped in at this level once again, preserving a support zone that has held every local bottom since early October. The reliability of this band reflects how strongly trend followers continue to back the broader move.

The EMA structure confirms that gold retains a firm advantage. Price trades above the 20-day EMA at $4,060 and well over the 50-day EMA at $3,932. The 100-day EMA at $3,735 and the distant 200-day EMA at $3,452 underline the strength of the medium-term trend. Any test of the 50-day EMA would likely attract accumulating flows, as has been the case throughout 2025.

Macro catalysts will dictate gold’s next major swing

Traders are now focused on the cluster of delayed U.S. economic releases following the government shutdown. The September non-farm payrolls report, expected Thursday, is likely to be the week’s primary driver. Fed minutes on Wednesday will offer further clarity on policymakers’ stance as the year-end meeting approaches.

Gold’s broader narrative remains supported by long-standing fundamental drivers. The metal is up more than 55% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. Central banks continue accumulating reserves at a historic pace, while ongoing fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty keeps hedging demand elevated.

The RSI sits near 54, suggesting neutral momentum with no signs of internal exhaustion. With price compressed between $4,070 and $4,200, volatility expansion appears likely once traders digest this week’s macro data.

A break above $4,190 would target $4,275 and potentially another test of the all-time-high region near $4,380. A drop below $4,000 would be the first signal of deeper corrective pressure, though current flows show buyers unwilling to allow price anywhere near those levels.

In earlier coverage, we highlighted that the $4,070–$4,130 demand band had repeatedly acted as gold’s primary defensive layer throughout Q4. This week’s stabilization reinforces that pattern, confirming that dip-buyers continue to dominate despite fluctuations in Fed expectations and macro releases.

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