IEA sees climate action rebound ahead of COP31 in Antalya

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IEA sees climate action ahead of COP31

Highlights

IEA chief Fatih Birol predicts a climate action rebound ahead of COP31 in Antalya, citing unprecedented overlap between energy security and climate goals.
Europe arrives at COP31 aiming to triple renewables capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, despite internal EU divisions weakening climate ambitions.
EU member states likely to delay methane leak and flaring rules on oil and gas imports until 2028, reflecting policy disagreements impacting the bloc's climate agenda.

IEA outlook before Antalya summit

As first reported by the Financial Times, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol says climate action will "rebound" after sliding down the global agenda over the past two to three years, despite a rising number of extreme weather events.

Birol says the coming COP31 meeting is especially important because countries are gathering while the world faces what he describes as its biggest energy security threat in history. Europe heads to the summit next week seeking to build on earlier commitments to triple renewables capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, while also pursuing stronger global electrification goals.

He also says energy security concerns and high prices linked to the war in Iran are helping accelerate renewable energy deployment, strengthen momentum for nuclear power and lift electric vehicle sales. According to Birol, the overlap between energy security objectives and climate goals is now unusually close.

Birol adds that U.S. solar deployment has been higher in the past two years than under former President Joe Biden, driven in part by heavy investment in data centre expansion by AI companies.

European policy divisions cloud ambitions

Birol's more optimistic assessment comes even as Europe shows signs of weaker climate ambition ahead of Antalya and the EU enters the talks with limited new goals.

On Friday, member states are expected to back an Irish compromise to delay new rules on methane leaks and flaring tied to oil and gas imports until 2028, with scope for further delays if certain conditions are not met. The proposal highlights how internal disagreements are affecting the bloc's climate agenda.

Kurt Vandenberghe, the EU's top climate official, says divisions within Europe over the pace of emissions cuts are producing "awkward outcomes" for climate policy. He criticises the dilution of the EU's combustion engine phaseout and calls to roll back the expansion of carbon costs for heating and transport.

The broader international backdrop has also shifted. U.S. President Donald Trump has received a setback in this week's midterm elections after twice taking the country out of the Paris Agreement, while Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election last month, adding support for stronger global climate action.

Our earlier article on Mario Draghi’s warning about restrictive monetary policy outlined how keeping interest rates above growth can worsen debt dynamics and, in turn, squeeze the long-term investment needed to strengthen resilience and productivity. It also highlighted Draghi’s call to pair inflation control with measures that protect productive investment, including deeper EU market integration and targeted funding to de-risk strategic technologies such as AI.

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