China trade surplus tops $1tn as export growth keeps pressure on partners
China’s external trade imbalance keeps widening in the first 10 months of the year, putting the country on track for another annual record surplus. The latest customs figures show the surplus reaches $1.04tn by October, a level that is likely to sharpen trade friction with partners including the EU.
Highlights
- China's year-to-date trade surplus reaches $1.04tn as of October, exceeding $964.8bn for the same period last year, per customs data.
- October exports rise 35.2 percent year on year, while imports jump 41.6 percent, both surpassing analyst forecasts amid higher energy and AI-related shipments.
- Surging trade surplus and increased exports prompt the EU and emerging markets to implement tariffs and trade defence measures against Chinese goods.
Customs data show strong export and import growth
As reported by Financial Times, China’s customs data show the year-to-date trade balance stands at $1.04tn as of October, above the $964.8bn recorded in the same period a year earlier.Exports rise 35.2 per cent year on year in October, slightly below September’s 36.3 per cent and also below the 36.3 per cent median forecast from analysts polled by Bloomberg. Imports increase 41.6 per cent, up from 31 per cent in the previous month and above the median forecast of 33.9 per cent, helped by higher energy prices and AI-related shipments into China.
The October trade surplus comes in at $105.3bn, down from $133.5bn in September, but still enough to push the cumulative surplus beyond the $1tn mark.
Rising surplus adds to trade tensions
China’s trade surplus reaches a record $1.2tn last year as weak domestic demand leaves the country’s expanding manufacturing sector reliant on overseas markets.The growing imbalance threatens to intensify pressure from trading partners. The EU has already responded with tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and a quota on hybrid car imports, and it is signaling the possibility of further action if shipments to the bloc continue to climb.
Emerging markets are also deploying more trade defence measures to shield domestic industries from low-cost Chinese imports. The latest figures suggest those concerns are likely to remain in focus as the year progresses.
Earlier, we reported that the WTO forecast Middle East exports to fall 17% in 2024 due to war-related disruptions.
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