GEMs Consortium expands emerging-market credit risk data for investors

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GEMs expands credit risk data

Highlights

GEMs Consortium released three updated publications expanding credit risk data for private, public, and sovereign lending in emerging markets, covering periods up to 2025.
The latest reports introduce contract-lifetime default rates, detailed analyses by financing currency, credit enhancements, and include for the first time unresolved sovereign default events by income group and region.
Private lending statistics now feature pilot credit spread return data from 2006 to 2025, with an average total spread of 3.77% aligning with market expectations.

New publications widen risk assessment scope

As reported by EBRD, the latest GEMs statistics are released in three publications covering private and public lending from 1994 to 2025, and sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending since 1984. The pooled database draws on submissions from multilateral development banks and development finance institutions, giving investors, credit rating agencies, regulators and policymakers a broader basis for judging repayment risk in emerging markets and developing economies.

The publications update data on default frequency and recovery outcomes, while also breaking results down by region, income group, sector, financing structure and currency. This year's private lending report adds contract-lifetime default rates, financing currency, credit enhancements, default resolution and institutional actions, while the public lending report expands analysis by currency type, default type, resolution type and actions taken.

The sovereign lending report includes estimates for unresolved default events for the first time and adds further analysis by income group, region and credit rating. The three releases are titled Default and Recovery Statistics: Private Lending 1994-2025, Default and Recovery Statistics: Public Lending 1994-2025, and Default and Recovery Statistics: Sovereign and Sovereign-Guaranteed Lending 1984-2025.

Returns data add market context

For the first time, the private lending publication includes a pilot analysis of credit spreads used to calculate returns, based on member-submitted data from 2006 to 2025. Over that period, the average total spread is 3.77%, a level the consortium says is in line with typical market expectations.

The returns analysis complements the default and recovery statistics and is intended to give a fuller picture of MDB and DFI lending performance in emerging markets and developing economies. The European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation co-chair the consortium, which includes major MDBs and DFIs.

GEMs describes its database as the world's largest source of credit risk statistics on MDB and DFI lending in emerging markets, aimed at helping investors judge repayment prospects and potential recoveries after default. Galytix, a UK-based AI firm for financial institutions, and PwC Luxembourg manage the database and produce the publications, while the statistics are also available through Bloomberg Terminal and the World Bank Group's Data360 portal.

Our earlier article covered KBRA’s September 2026 roundup that consolidates recent podcast commentary into a single report for credit investors, highlighting 12 themes shaping market conditions. It focused on the tension between resilient economic data and wider credit spreads, alongside factors such as oil pricing, real interest rates and uncertainty around tightening—signals that can influence bond valuations and fixed-income allocation decisions.

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