Arin Dube: Real wage growth flat under Trump 2.0 between 2025 and April 2026

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12.05.2026

Arin Dube: Real wage growth flat under Trump 2.0 between 2025 and April 2026 — U.S. real wages trend flat in 2026

Arin Dube highlights that the average hourly wage for private-sector workers in April 2026 was $37.41. According to Dube, this figure was only slightly higher than the inflation-adjusted $37.35 when U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January 2025.

Dube argues that there has been essentially zero real wage growth during Trump 2.0.

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Dube has previously noted that the labor share of income in the U.S. has fallen since 2000. In a separate analysis, he found that most real wage growth for the bottom half since 1979 occurred during periods of tight labor markets. The new data come as economists track wage performance under the latest administration.

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