Anas Alhajji: Oil price analysis requires strict assumptions and data handling

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Mikhail Vnuchkov

03.07.2026

Anas Alhajji: Oil price analysis requires strict assumptions and data handling — Oil price forecasts need strict analysis

Anas Alhajji, managing partner, energy economist, market analyst at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, critiques simplistic views on oil price predictions.

He emphasizes that correlation or regression analysis requires strict assumptions, careful treatment of outliers, and accounting for data irregularities. Alhajji argues that asserting oil prices must be $130 or higher based solely on current inventories ignores the complex analytical process and its key constraints.

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Alhajji recently highlighted a sharp U.S. crude inventory draw that lifted prices, while noting that surprise gasoline and distillate builds sparked demand concerns in a prior commentary. He has also noted that rising Cushing crude inventories have not resulted in higher WTI prices, raising questions for market pessimists in a separate update. The comments reflect his focus on the complexity of interpreting inventory data.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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