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Tom McClellan: Federal tax burden above 18% of GDP linked to recessions

Tom McClellan: Federal tax burden above 18% of GDP linked to recessions
Federal taxes at 18% often precede recessions

Tom McClellan argues that when U.S. federal taxes rise to 18% of GDP, both the economy and the stock market tend to suffer.

He notes that reaching or even approaching this threshold often coincides with the onset of recessions in the country.

McClellan has previously pointed out that total open interest has been declining since January 2025, which he said signals reduced market activity in U.S. markets (read more). In another recent note, he stated that buying opportunities in the S&P 500 were typically stronger when analysts maintained pessimistic earnings outlooks (read more). Both observations add context to his views on market pressures as tax levels approach historical thresholds.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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