Market Timing and Technical Analysis by Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan is the publisher of the McClellan Market Report and co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator, a leading indicator used to gauge internal market momentum. His breadth-based methodologies have been in use for over three decades and adapted by retail and institutional traders across asset classes. In 2025, McClellan released calibrated versions of the Oscillator for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana using adjusted advance-decline formulas. These tools now power technical dashboards on TradingView and CoinGlass, providing entry and exit cues for short-term crypto traders.
A consistent contributor to financial media, McClellan also lectures on seasonality and market breadth at national trading expos. His newsletter reports reach 15,000 subscribers monthly, including crypto hedge funds integrating traditional models into token analysis.
By extending breadth indicators into decentralized markets, McClellan retools legacy metrics for blockchain-native applications.
Tom McClellan: Market correction driven by bearish seasonality and RASI +500 failure
Tom McClellan points to two primary reasons for the current market correction. He identifies a shift toward bearish seasonality, particularly in the second year of a presidential term, as one ...
Long-term mortgage rates respond to global temperature trends, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan argues that long-term mortgage rates, including other interest rates, are influenced more by global average temperatures from five years prior than by the administration in the White ...
Tom McClellan: Large net long positions drive Bitcoin futures breakout
Tom McClellan observes that non-commercial traders now hold a significant net long position in Bitcoin futures, following a breakout rally above the downtrend line. He notes that prices have ...
Retiring boomers broke economic relationship, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan has published a new article titled "Retiring Boomers Broke This Economic Relationship" on his home page. The article is referenced in his latest tweet, with a direct link to follow ...
Tom McClellan: NDX component stock drawdowns worsening is unhealthy
Tom McClellan raises concerns about the deepening drawdowns of NDX component stocks. He describes the trend as an unhealthy development in the ...
Bond market is replicating gold trends from nearly two years ago, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan observes that current bond market behavior is reflecting patterns seen in gold prices approximately 20 and a half months earlier. He highlights the longstanding relationship between ...
Tom McClellan: Hindenburg Omen signal not met due to $NYA level
Tom McClellan clarifies that reports of a Hindenburg Omen signal being generated today are incorrect. He explains that while both new highs (NH) and new lows (NL) exceeded the necessary ...
Inflation and sunspot cycles align on CPI lows, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan, industry influencer, observes that the current rise in inflation is due to higher oil and gasoline prices, but also occurs in line with predictable patterns. According to ...
Tom McClellan: Nasdaq 100 rally sees fewer stocks above 100-day averages
Tom McClellan, industry influencer, observes that although the Nasdaq 100 has posted impressive gains, participation among its component stocks is declining. He points out that the number of ...
Non-commercials take key role in Bitcoin futures market, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan, industry influencer, analyzes a shift in the Bitcoin futures market. He points out that, unlike in late 2025, non-commercial traders are now net long in significant fashion. He ...
Tom McClellan: NDX average drawdown near 30-year level
Tom McClellan, industry influencer, highlights that the current average drawdown for NDX stocks is 19.5 percent, which he characterizes as very normal and close to the 30-year average. He adds ...
Stock market performance linked to savings rate changes, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan, industry influencer, suggests that a declining savings rate is typically a positive signal for the stock market. He observes that periods when the savings rate increases tend to ...
And Investors Intelligence: SP500 trend closely follows investor sentiment data
And Investors Intelligence, industry influencer, observes a notable correlation between Investors Intelligence sentiment readings and a detrended chart of the SP500. The influencer points out ...
Stock prices often move after sharp U.S. sentiment drops, the better point of this comparison notes
The better point of this comparison, industry influencer, encourages investors to consider how stock prices tend to behave in the months following a very low University of Michigan sentiment ...
Tom McClellan: FOMC rate changes unlikely to affect gasoline prices or CPI
Tom McClellan questioned the logic behind expecting FOMC modifications to the Fed Funds target rate to impact gasoline prices or the Consumer Price Index. In his comment, McClellan emphasized ...
Nasdaq 100 shows uptrend may continue despite overbought reading, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan highlights that the McClellan Advance-Decline Oscillator, specifically tracking Nasdaq 100 Index stocks, has risen to a high level. According to McClellan, this condition reflects ...
Tom McClellan: New York City rainfall 10 inches below average while market supported by QE5
New York City has experienced rainfall levels 10 inches lower than its average over the past 12 months. Tom McClellan drew parallels between the rainfall shortfall and financial market dynamics, ...
Rate hikes may increase inflation by boosting costs, Tom McClellan argues
Tom McClellan questions the effectiveness of rate hikes in controlling inflation. He suggests that raising interest rates increases the cost of capital—considered a price input that can feed ...
Tom McClellan: Smart money adds to Bitcoin net longs as prices move sideways
Bitcoin futures are seeing increased net long positions from non-commercial traders, often considered the smart money, even as spot prices remain in a sideways pattern. Tom McClellan describes ...
Bitcoin and IGV performance diverge in recent moves, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan observes a notable divergence between IGV and Bitcoin. While the two assets have been moving together recently, Bitcoin has not mirrored the recent drop seen in IGV. McClellan ...
Tom McClellan: Full moon dates often align with gold price turning points
Tom McClellan has highlighted a recurring pattern in gold price movements that corresponds with full moon dates. According to McClellan, these dates tend to mark either turning points or periods ...
