Market Timing and Technical Analysis by Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan is the publisher of the McClellan Market Report and co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator, a leading indicator used to gauge internal market momentum. His breadth-based methodologies have been in use for over three decades and adapted by retail and institutional traders across asset classes. In 2025, McClellan released calibrated versions of the Oscillator for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana using adjusted advance-decline formulas. These tools now power technical dashboards on TradingView and CoinGlass, providing entry and exit cues for short-term crypto traders.
A consistent contributor to financial media, McClellan also lectures on seasonality and market breadth at national trading expos. His newsletter reports reach 15,000 subscribers monthly, including crypto hedge funds integrating traditional models into token analysis.
By extending breadth indicators into decentralized markets, McClellan retools legacy metrics for blockchain-native applications.
Bond yields may echo past gold price action, Tom McClellan suggests
Tom McClellan proposes an alternate explanation for the recent rise in bond yields and mortgage rates. He suggests that interest rates are following the pattern of gold prices from approximately ...
Tom McClellan: SP500 annualized returns may differ in coming decade
Tom McClellan raises the point that the 13.9% annualized rate of returns for the SP500 over the most recent 10 years may not necessarily continue in the next 10 years. His comment was made in ...
Both NVDA and NDX achieve higher highs with no conflict, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan comments that a non-divergence on charts can sometimes be a stronger message than a divergence. He points to recent market action where both NVDA and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) reached ...
Tom McClellan: NYSE meets first condition for Zweig Breadth Thrust signal
Tom McClellan reports that the New York Stock Exchange has recorded the initial requirement for a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) occurrence, with the 10-day exponential moving average of advancing ...
Quarterly rebalancing starts after statements, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan describes how the quarter's end marks the completion of housecleaning activities ahead of preparing the Sep. 30 statements of holdings. He adds that this milestone now allows ...
Tom McClellan: Junk bond ETF pool shrinking as T-Bond prices decline
Tom McClellan observes that the trend seen in cap-weighted bond ETFs also applies to junk bond ETFs such as HYG. He highlights that the pool of junk bonds has been shrinking over time, occurring ...
Non-commercial traders labeled smart money in Bitcoin futures, Tom McClellan states
Tom McClellan highlights the unique positioning of non-commercial traders in the Bitcoin futures market. According to McClellan, these traders represent the smart money in this segment—a ...
Tom McClellan: Gold’s 20-and-a-half month lead signals start of new LT bond yield trend
Tom McClellan notes that gold’s 20-and-a-half month leading indication suggests the trend for long-term bond yields is only just beginning. He states that the relationship and its implications ...
M2 money supply up 36.5 times and Disney World ticket prices 54 times higher, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan highlights the dramatic growth in the U.S. M2 money supply since January 1971, noting it has increased from $635 billion to $23,157.6 billion, a 36.5-fold rise. He adds that Disney ...
Tom McClellan: U.S. real GDP has stayed near 2 percent since late 2024
Tom McClellan highlights that U.S. real GDP has remained around 2.0 percent since late 2024, describing this level as depressed and potentially influenced by the same factors that have led to a ...
Relationship between earnings and market movement examined, Tom McClellan analyzes
Tom McClellan seeks precise input on whether earnings drive stock market movements or if market activity dictates earnings behavior. He requests direct evidence and asks respondents to avoid ...
Tom McClellan: Gold movements suggest higher oil prices ahead
Tom McClellan highlights his latest Chart In Focus article titled Gold Says Oil Prices Going Higher For Longer. The article is available on his homepage, where he analyzes the relationship ...
Only four signals in 30-day period, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan explains that there have only been four qualifying market signals within a recent 30 trading day period, specifically on July 29, August 10, August 11, and September 3. He clarifies ...
Tom McClellan: Bitcoin COT report data differ from traditional markets
Tom McClellan shares his latest 'Chart In Focus' article that examines how Bitcoin Commitments of Traders (COT) report data work differently from those in other markets. The publication is now ...
SHY provides access to 1–3 year Treasury yields at 4.11%, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan highlights that for investors seeking the safety of U.S. Treasury bills without directly buying or managing them, SHY is an ETF that tracks 1–3 year Treasuries and currently yields ...
Tom McClellan: Proposed tax change could unlock home supply
Tom McClellan describes a scenario where capital gains taxes prevent families from selling inherited homes, even when the homeowner is no longer living there. He suggests that a change in tax ...
Fed bond buying leads to higher rates, Tom McClellan argues
Tom McClellan challenges the view that the Federal Reserve has little influence over long-term interest rates. He points to the pattern that whenever the Fed engages in quantitative easing, bond ...
Tom McClellan: Federal tax burden above 18% of GDP linked to recessions
Tom McClellan argues that when U.S. federal taxes rise to 18% of GDP, both the economy and the stock market tend to suffer. He notes that reaching or even approaching this threshold often ...
Total open interest declining since Jan. 2025, Tom McClellan notes
Tom McClellan notes that total open interest has been shrinking since January 2025. The statement points to a decrease in market participation or activity over this ...
Tom McClellan: Post-2020 inflation rise followed expected timeline
Tom McClellan observes that the increase in inflation after 2020 occurred in line with established expectations. He adds that both the Federal Reserve and Congress contributed to amplifying the ...
Gold signaled rising yields almost 21 months ahead, Tom McClellan argues
Tom McClellan questions why gold does not receive more attention for predicting the recent increase in yields nearly 21 months in advance. He suggests that the precious metal provided an early ...
