Fed could make history by holding rates when futures price in 88 percent chance of a hike, Mike McGlone notes

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12.09.2026

Fed could make history by holding rates when futures price in 88 percent chance of a hike, Mike McGlone notes — Fed may break precedent on rate decision

Mike McGlone highlights the unusual circumstances ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

He notes there is no well-documented precedent for the Fed to hold rates when futures were pricing approximately an 88 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike just one week before the decision. McGlone suggests that if the Fed chooses to hold, it would represent a significant departure from past patterns at such high implied probabilities.

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McGlone has previously compared gold’s surge to $5,600 an ounce in the first quarter to crude oil’s rally in 2008, citing strong commodity trends in earlier commentary. In a separate note, he observed hedge funds held about 24% of corn futures open interest, a level that typically comes before liquidation risk as detailed in his report on corn futures. These observations reflect McGlone’s consistent tracking of market positioning during key events.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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