October Fed rate hike odds jump to 75 percent on PMI surge, Gordon Johnson notes

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23.09.2026

October Fed rate hike odds jump to 75 percent on PMI surge, Gordon Johnson notes — Fed rate hike odds climb after PMI

Gordon Johnson, CEO / Analyst at GLJ Research, observes a sharp shift in market expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

According to Johnson, the likelihood of a rate increase jumped from a coin flip to 75 percent within a single session after the release of stronger-than-expected flash PMI data. Services registered at 58.7, manufacturing was near 57, and price gauges reached their highest levels since October 2022, a period when the Federal Reserve was still implementing 75 basis point increases.

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Johnson previously highlighted that Tesla lacks federal, state, and technical approvals for unsupervised Robotaxi service, with key rules still in place, in a recent analysis on Tesla driverless operations. He also flagged missing details on Cybercabs and a new U.S. probe after Tesla shares fell 6 percent following the anticipated event, as reported in his coverage of the Cybercab event. These prior observations reflect Johnson’s focus on regulatory and event-driven shifts impacting major stocks.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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